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If we’re not there already, the peak in interest rates is close

Today’s 25 basis point rise in interest rates from 4.25% to 4.50% takes rates to our long-held forecast and may be the last hike, although one or two more hikes are possible. We suspect the subsequent holding phase will be fairly long, lasting until the first half of next year. But we think the future cutting phase will be more aggressive than market pricing with rates falling to 3.00% by end-2024 rather than to 4.00%. We are discussing the outlook in a 20-minute “Drop In” online briefing at 3pm today (register).

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