The regional slowdown at the start of this year has further to run. This will continue to be led by the Gulf countries, where the drag from oil output cuts will intensify and low oil prices will prompt fresh fiscal austerity. Elsewhere, balance sheet concerns cloud the outlook for some of the region’s smaller economies. But Egypt and Morocco should be regional outperformers. Overall, we have pencilled in regional GDP growth of 2.3-2.8% in 2019-21. Our forecasts for most countries are below the consensus.
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