Tensions within OPEC+ over oil policy appear to be escalating amid rumours that the UAE is, once again, thinking about leaving the group. Ultimately, we think the Gulf states will ramp up oil output ahead of peak oil demand. Elsewhere, Egypt is seeking to improve its policy credibility which is key to avoiding further large falls in the currency and reducing the risk of a sovereign debt crisis. The World Bank pulled support from Tunisia following recent comments by the president which have been decried as being racially charged. The lack of external support reinforces our long-held view that Tunisia is heading for a messy sovereign default.
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