Cobalt caught in a trap

We think that cobalt prices will rebound, by approximately 30%, between now and mid-2019, aided by a temporary halt to cobalt sales and exports from a major operation in the DRC.
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Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Sep.)

Slower growth in aluminium output in September was probably linked to surging power prices. The combination of constrained output and soaring production costs will support aluminium prices in the near term and we have raised our end-2021 aluminium price forecast.

20 October 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Pulling the plug; power rationing in China

Power rationing in China has raised concerns about metal supply. But perhaps less obvious is that power rationing will also negatively affect demand if manufacturing activity is curtailed. On balance, we think that the supply impact will dominate and support prices in the coming months, but we expect prices to fall back in 2022 as economic activity, particularly construction, in China continues to slow.

19 October 2021

Precious Metals Update

Dim outlook for the silver price

We think that weaker physical demand, higher real US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar will mean that the recent poor performance of the silver price is set to continue over the next couple of years.

7 October 2021

More from Capital Economics Economist

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed

Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic growth and low inflation than the prospect of interest rate cuts in the US.

20 June 2019

European Economics Focus

Cyprus to outperform euro-zone, but risks remain

Cyprus has now recovered from the economic crisis of 2012-13, which was caused primarily by its oversized banking sector. While a number of risks remain, notably the high level of non-performing loans, we expect the economy to continue expanding more rapidly than the euro-zone as a whole for the next few years, and the public debt ratio to fall steadily.

20 June 2019

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (May)

May’s activity data suggest that, following extremely weak GDP growth in Q1, Russia’s economy has failed to gather much momentum in Q2.

20 June 2019
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