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Brazil IPCA-15 (September 2022)

The fall in inflation in Brazil to a 16-month low of 8.0% y/y in the first half of September confirms that the monetary tightening cycle is over. By the same token, the fact that inflation remains very strong (particularly outside the food and energy categories) supports our view that the central bank will wait until the middle of next year before turning to interest rate cuts.

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