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What would a hard lockdown mean for Japan?

With the Delta variant lifting new infections to a record-high, calls for a “hard” lockdown are growing. If that happened, services activity would fall further but we doubt that the government would shut down industry. And with households and firms now better prepared to deal with virus restrictions, it seems likely that GDP wouldn’t revisit last year’s lows.  
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Japan Economics Weekly

Japan to outperform as cost of living rising less sharply

GDP shrank yet again in Q1 as the Omicron wave brought the recovery in consumption to a halt. However, services spending was more resilient than we had anticipated and there are good reasons to think that Japan’s economy will outperform other large advanced economies over the coming quarters.  

20 May 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Consumer Prices (Apr. 2022)

Inflation rose above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for the first time since 2008 and we expect underlying inflation to approach 2% later this year, but this won't prompt the Bank to tighten policy.

20 May 2022

Japan Economics Update

Weaker yen won’t provide a big boost to net exports

With Japan’s terms of trade set to improve only modestly and interest rates differentials moving further against the yen, we expect the exchange rate to fall to 140 against the dollar by year-end. But this currency weakness will provide only a small boost to Japan’s net export volumes.

19 May 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Activity to rebound in fourth quarter

With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is collapsing and vaccine supply is set to pick up. As such, we’re sticking to our view that the RBA will hike interest rates in early-2023.

30 July 2021

RBA Watch

RBA to delay tapering to November

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to respond to the worsening virus outbreak in Sydney by delaying the tapering of its asset purchases from September to November. Even so, we still expect those purchases to end in mid-2022, with rate hikes to follow in early-2023.

28 July 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2021)

Most of the surge in inflation in Q2 was driven by base effects that will unwind over the next couple of quarters, but we think that inflation will remain stronger than the RBA is anticipating.

28 July 2021
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