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Japan Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

Retail sales kept rising in October despite another drop in motor vehicles sales. With supply disruptions now starting to ease and mobility picking up, they should continue to increase.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Japan Economics Weekly

Virus fears waning, Bank of Japan plans could change

We doubt that the spike in mobility during Golden Week is a harbinger of a rapid rebound in consumer spending. Mounting concerns about rising living costs and lingering virus fears among the elderly will keep the savings rate well above pre-virus levels. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan this week ruled out widening the tolerance band around its 10-year yield target. However, markets remain unconvinced as yields continue to trade close to the ceiling of the band. We still expect the Bank to come under renewed pressure to defend the target, eventually forcing it to widen the tolerance band.  

13 May 2022

Japan Economics Update

Large pot of pandemic savings to collect dust

The hit to household incomes from higher inflation will be much smaller in Japan than elsewhere and consumers have plenty of pandemic forced savings to tap into to sustain spending. But we nonetheless expect the rebound in consumption to disappoint over the coming months as consumers are spooked by rare price hikes to everyday items and some remain wary of catching the virus. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

11 May 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 22)

Nominal wage growth stayed at 1.2% in March and we think it could touch 2% over the coming months as overtime and bonus payments get back to their pre-virus levels. But with base pay growth still weak, we think overall wage growth will fall back to 1% before long. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

9 May 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much

Australia’s government isn’t keen on opening the immigration floodgates once the border reopens to migrants next year and we still expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by 2023. Nor do we expect migration to ease labour shortages in New Zealand much next year. Nonetheless, New Zealand’s labour market is already very tight and with the RBNZ set to keep tightening monetary policy, we expect unemployment to creep higher over the next couple of years.

26 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter.

26 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21)

Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters.

25 November 2021
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