The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from a four-year high of almost 3.0% in late February to only around 2.7% in early April, leading to claims that it had now peaked in this cycle. Yet the yield has since rebounded a bit and we continue to forecast that it will climb further to 3.5% by the end of 2018. Only in 2019 do we expect the yield to drop back, as the outlook for US monetary policy changes.
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