Italian BTPs will probably continue to trade like “junk”

Although Italian government bonds (BTPs) are already trading like “junk”, we think that their credit spread will rise even further next year for several reasons.
Continue reading

More from Global Markets

Global Markets Update

We don’t expect higher inflation to derail US equities

While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of years.

11 June 2021

Global Markets Update

We expect the tailwind to stocks from commodities to fade

The rise in commodity prices has boosted some commodity-heavy stock markets, but we suspect that it will run out of steam before long, limiting those stock markets’ gains over the next couple of years.

10 June 2021

Global Markets Update

Assessing the outlook for EM monetary policy & LC bonds

While we expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to increase as the US 10-year Treasury yield resumes its rise, we think increases in yields will generally be smaller than in the US. This reflects our view that most EM central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently anticipate.

4 June 2021

More from Capital Economics Economist

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed

Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic growth and low inflation than the prospect of interest rate cuts in the US.

20 June 2019

European Economics Focus

Cyprus to outperform euro-zone, but risks remain

Cyprus has now recovered from the economic crisis of 2012-13, which was caused primarily by its oversized banking sector. While a number of risks remain, notably the high level of non-performing loans, we expect the economy to continue expanding more rapidly than the euro-zone as a whole for the next few years, and the public debt ratio to fall steadily.

20 June 2019

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (May)

May’s activity data suggest that, following extremely weak GDP growth in Q1, Russia’s economy has failed to gather much momentum in Q2.

20 June 2019
↑ Back to top