A year of disinflation

Inflation is finally falling and we envisage further sharp declines in almost all economies during 2023. In most cases, this disinflation will be more dramatic than either the consensus of economists or central banks predict. A large part of the fall will be down to energy and food effects and the key question is whether underlying inflation will also decelerate. But with economies sliding into recession and unemployment likely to rise, we suspect that core price pressures will ease, allowing central banks to end or even start to reverse their policy tightening.

Note: We’ll be answering your inflation questions and discussing the key takeaways from this report in a special Drop-In on Thursday, 5th January at 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT. Register here.