Global Economics

Global Inflation Watch

17 September, 2018

Some signs of building price pressures

Following a long period of tightening labour markets, wage pressures are mounting, and we think this will lead to a gradual pick-up in average earnings growth. Core inflation rate will probably rise quite sharply in the US next year but then drop back as the economy slows, while elsewhere we expect it to rise more slowly. We do not expect a dramatic increase in inflation because earnings growth remains fairly unresponsive to falling unemployment and oil prices are likely to fall next yea

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