Global Economics

Global Economics Update

20 February, 2019

Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports

We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade through its effect on business confidence and investment. But the key driver has been softer underlying demand, implying that a positive conclusion to ongoing trade talks would not lead to a sharp recovery in world exports.

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