The ten-fold increase in confirmed coronavirus cases and slump in equity prices over the past week has increased the risk of a recession. We would not be surprised if the ECB issues an official statement designed to shore up confidence very soon, and the chance of a token rate cut on, or even before, 12th March has risen. Meanwhile, the key things to watch for next week are the daily virus count and financial market turbulence: the scheduled data releases will tell us little new about the impact of the virus.
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