The latest twists in the Brexit saga suggest to us that the UK is most likely to stay in the EU beyond 29th March and leave later in the year with some kind of deal. If so, we think Ireland’s GDP would rise by about 3% this year and 2% in 2020. But there is still a risk that the UK leaves without a deal. In that case, Ireland’s GDP would probably be about 2% lower by the end of 2020 than in our central forecast.
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