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If it happens at all, ECB QT will be very slow

The ECB might start quantitative tightening next year but that’s not guaranteed, and even if it does so we doubt that it will make much of a dent in its government bond holdings. As a result, interest rates will remain the most important tool for tightening monetary policy. We also would not be surprised if fresh net asset purchases were needed at some stage to contain peripheral bond spreads.

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