Turkey Industrial Production (Oct.)

October’s industrial production figures suggest that Turkey’s economy made a soft start to Q4 but more timely evidence suggest that this will prove a blip. Looser monetary and fiscal policy is likely to underpin relatively strong GDP growth in the current and coming quarters.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

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A renewed wave of COVID-19 cases has prompted some governments to reimpose strict containment measures across Emerging Europe and talk of lockdowns is now becoming more widespread. The experience so far during the pandemic is that tighter containment measures need not result in a large hit to activity. But the latest virus waves add to the growing near-term headwinds in the region from rising inflation and supply disruptions to industry and we think that recoveries will slow sharply in Q4.

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Emerging Europe Economics Update

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21 October 2021

More from Jason Tuvey

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence

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The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation in April, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by energy price effects but there were signs that broader price pressures are starting to build. But even so, we think that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold for longer than investors currently expect in order to support the economy.

19 May 2021
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