Re-thinking Turkey’s policy shift, Prigozhin’s death

The 750bp rate interest hike by Turkey's central bank this week was a major surprise and there are still reasons to be sceptical about the policy U-turn that's underway. At this point, however, we're minded to focus on the positives and there is now a stronger case to be optimistic on the outlook for the lira. Meanwhile in Russia, the death of former Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin this week is unlikely to have major economic implications. And while it comes at a time when President Putin is under pressure to step up the war effort in Ukraine, we doubt that more resources could be devoted to the war without further undermining Russia's macroeconomic stability.