With Q3 GDP figures now published for most of the major economies in Emerging Asia, the region looks to have grown by 4.6% y/y in the third quarter – a full 1.5%-points faster than just 18 months ago. But with exports set to weaken and domestic demand unlikely to take up the slack, we think growth in most countries has now peaked. While some central banks are likely to tighten policy in the months ahead, with slower growth set to keep inflation under control, we are maintaining our view that the majority of countries will leave rates unchanged next year.
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