The dollar value of exports from Emerging Asia (excluding China) grew in August by 3.1% y/y – the first expansion in nearly two years. The recent improvement in export performance owes more to the fading effects of the collapse in commodity prices on export values than a recovery in underlying demand. Oil prices, for example, were just 1.2% lower in August than they were 12 months ago. (In July oil prices were 17.9% lower than they had been a year before.) The dollar value of Asian exports should continue to recover over the coming months as positive “base effects” boost growth in the value of commodity exports. But with global demand set to remain subdued, export volumes, which matter more for GDP growth, are likely to remain weak, dragging on overall growth prospects.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services