COVID threat, marriage slump

The number of Chinese cities tackling virus outbreaks is now almost as high as it was at the peak of the Omicron wave. The hit to activity remains smaller. But with Chengdu entering lockdown and other cities teetering on the brink, the risk of another sharp downturn is elevated. Meanwhile, a drop in marriages to a four-decade low strengthens our view that China’s demographic headwinds are even larger than generally assumed.