The uneven incoming data reinforce our view that the economy hasn’t turned the corner. Exports continue to misfire, which isn’t encouraging for hopes of a recovery in business investment. Meanwhile, households continue to do most of the heavy lifting. While auto sales hit new highs last month, the recent rebound in home resales and housing starts indicate that residential investment was the main highlight in our first-quarter GDP growth estimate of 4.5% annualised.
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