UK Economics Weekly Economy running out of momentum With employment falling and GDP contracting in September, the government will have been glad to close the door on Q3. But looking out of the window onto Q4, the view isn’t much better. 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Edging towards an interest rate cut Chancellor Sajid Javid’s new fiscal rules clear the way for a big splurge in investment spending. And the fiscal loosening would probably be even larger if the Labour Party were to win the election... 8th November 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit, general election, interest rates and rugby If the Conservatives win a majority at the election on 12 th December as the polls suggest, it could be the moment we move from a “repeated delay” Brexit scenario, in which demand continues to be... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Zombie government, zombie economy and zombie pound A delay to Brexit from next Thursday to until 31 st January would not be a huge blow for the economy. But by prolonging the uncertainty it could create an extra drag that contributes to GDP growth... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament, over to you Last week, we said that there were two big obstacles in the pathway to a Brexit deal. With the UK and the EU having come to an agreement, one hurdle has been overcome. The second, whether Parliament... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Obstacles in the pathway to a deal, GDP slowdown looming While the mood music between the EU and the UK appears to have become more upbeat, there are still some major obstacles that may prevent a deal. After all, Parliament would have to vote for it. And... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two borders, four years, one interest rate cut? The frosty response from the EU to the Prime Ministers latest proposal for a Brexit deal means that there is a high chance that Brexit is delayed again until 31st January. If there is a delay, then at... 4th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Headwinds to growth blowing harder Despite the headwinds from the global economic slowdown and the political chaos around Brexit, there are still good reasons to think that GDP grew in Q3. However, it is clear that the performance of... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC tanker is turning In recent years the economy has been moving towards full capacity, but at this week’s meeting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) judged that it has changed direction and slack is now opening up... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political chaos, economic calm With the ECB loosening monetary policy this week, the Fed expected to cut interest rates for the second time in two months next week and the growing political chaos at home, you’d be forgiven for... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly “It’s Brexit, stupid” The latest indications are that the general election that may seal the fate of Brexit is unlikely to take place until the EU has agreed to delay Brexit again and the current deadline of 31 st October... 6th September 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Suspending Parliament increases chances of a no deal Brexit By restricting the window in which Parliament can prevent a no deal, the suspension of Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14th October has increased the downside risks to... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly US-UK trade deal unlikely to get off the ground We have our doubts that a US-UK trade deal, even a “modular” one, will be easily achievable if there is a no deal Brexit. In any case, the bigger issue will still be the trading relationship between... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK different? Whereas US yield curve inversions are close to a fool-proof predictor of US recessions, a recession in the UK has only followed inversions in the gilt yield curve on 50% of occasions. That’s not... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recession fears rising The contraction in GDP in Q2 together with the partial inversion of the gilt yield curve has raised concerns that a recession in the UK is on the way if it’s not already here. We suspect that the UK... 9th August 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Forecasting a parallel universe In our latest UK Economic Outlook, “An economic multiverse” (16th July), we set out the different paths politics could send the economy down. The MPC took a different approach this week, forecasting... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
