UK Economics Weekly Health crisis => economic crisis => financial crisis? There is no doubt that the coronavirus health crisis has already led to an economic crisis and this week we saw the first real signs of severe disruption in the financial markets. Whatever happens, an... 20th March 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A recession and more policy action is coming As it seems increasingly inevitable that a further spread of the coronavirus will have a significant impact on the economy, we are changing our forecasts. We now expect a recession that will involve... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Coronavirus complicates new policymakers’ task The drop back in equity prices this week heaps more pressure on the new head honchos at the Treasury and the Bank of England to deliver some measures to help mitigate the economic effects of the... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Could the markets force the MPC to cut rates? The sharp falls in equity prices show that things are moving fast and this week we revised down our 2020 GDP growth forecast to reflect the damage to the global economy from the coronavirus. But the... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economic rebound in progress, but clouds on the horizon The first official data for January piled more evidence onto our view that the economy will rebound in Q1 2020 after hitting a nadir in Q4 2019. But the growing impact of coronavirus on China’s... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Change of Chancellor increases upsides for economy We had already been expecting fiscal policy to provide a decent boost to economic growth over the next couple of years, but the changing of the Chancellor this week means that boost could turn out to... 14th February 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A decent fiscal boost is still on the way This week brought the clearest sign yet that the economy has turned a corner. And with the prospect of a fiscal loosening in the Budget on 11th March likely to provide a further lift to GDP growth, we... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rate call on track, a Brexit transition into the unknown Thursday’s interest rate decision was a good first step on the road to vindicating our view that interest rates won’t be cut this year. And the Bank’s new forecast suggests that the bar to a rate cut... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The U-turns of the markets and the Chancellor The rebound in the activity PMIs have caused the markets to do something of a U-turn and they are now broadly in line our view that interest rates will probably be left at 0.75% at next Thursday’s MPC... 24th January 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data distortions make the MPC’s job more difficult A flurry of weak data this week has sent money markets into a tailspin. But we suspect that the MPC will just about look past the Brexit and election related distortions and will probably hold off... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly First evidence of a “Boris bounce” There is some early evidence that a “Boris bounce” after the election victory might be in progress, but the size and duration of any upswing will depend on how well the next stage of the Brexit... 10th January 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly “Uncertainty” is still the key word While the UK will officially leave the EU at the end of the month, the transition period will give firms some breathing space which we expect to lead to some recovery in economic activity. That would... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy heads into 2020 with very little momentum The economy seems to be heading into 2020 with very little momentum. And we do not have high hopes for next year. Indeed, whatever the Brexit drama delivers in 2020, it seems likely that uncertainty... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political fog lifts, but horizon still unclear While the election result has changed sentiment in the markets and Westminster, as far as the economy is concerned the most crucial decisions about the UK’s future trading relationship with Europe and... 13th December 2019 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What will investors unwrap on Thursday night? The gap between the main parties in the polls suggests a Labour-led government is still plausible, but by far the most likely result of Thursday’s general election is a Conservative majority. That... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Deal may not mean deal While the opinion polls are increasingly suggesting that the Conservatives will win a big enough majority in the election to pass a Brexit deal by 31 st January, the Prime Minister’s plan to defy all... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
