UK Economics Weekly First evidence of a “Boris bounce” There is some early evidence that a “Boris bounce” after the election victory might be in progress, but the size and duration of any upswing will depend on how well the next stage of the Brexit... 10th January 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly “Uncertainty” is still the key word While the UK will officially leave the EU at the end of the month, the transition period will give firms some breathing space which we expect to lead to some recovery in economic activity. That would... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy heads into 2020 with very little momentum The economy seems to be heading into 2020 with very little momentum. And we do not have high hopes for next year. Indeed, whatever the Brexit drama delivers in 2020, it seems likely that uncertainty... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political fog lifts, but horizon still unclear While the election result has changed sentiment in the markets and Westminster, as far as the economy is concerned the most crucial decisions about the UK’s future trading relationship with Europe and... 13th December 2019 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What will investors unwrap on Thursday night? The gap between the main parties in the polls suggests a Labour-led government is still plausible, but by far the most likely result of Thursday’s general election is a Conservative majority. That... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Deal may not mean deal While the opinion polls are increasingly suggesting that the Conservatives will win a big enough majority in the election to pass a Brexit deal by 31 st January, the Prime Minister’s plan to defy all... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour’s big plans for the state While there is little evidence that a bigger government sector leads to either higher or lower economic growth, Labour’s plans to super-size the state so quickly if they won the election on 12 th... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy running out of momentum With employment falling and GDP contracting in September, the government will have been glad to close the door on Q3. But looking out of the window onto Q4, the view isn’t much better. 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Edging towards an interest rate cut Chancellor Sajid Javid’s new fiscal rules clear the way for a big splurge in investment spending. And the fiscal loosening would probably be even larger if the Labour Party were to win the election... 8th November 2019 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit, general election, interest rates and rugby If the Conservatives win a majority at the election on 12 th December as the polls suggest, it could be the moment we move from a “repeated delay” Brexit scenario, in which demand continues to be... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Zombie government, zombie economy and zombie pound A delay to Brexit from next Thursday to until 31 st January would not be a huge blow for the economy. But by prolonging the uncertainty it could create an extra drag that contributes to GDP growth... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament, over to you Last week, we said that there were two big obstacles in the pathway to a Brexit deal. With the UK and the EU having come to an agreement, one hurdle has been overcome. The second, whether Parliament... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Obstacles in the pathway to a deal, GDP slowdown looming While the mood music between the EU and the UK appears to have become more upbeat, there are still some major obstacles that may prevent a deal. After all, Parliament would have to vote for it. And... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two borders, four years, one interest rate cut? The frosty response from the EU to the Prime Ministers latest proposal for a Brexit deal means that there is a high chance that Brexit is delayed again until 31st January. If there is a delay, then at... 4th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Headwinds to growth blowing harder Despite the headwinds from the global economic slowdown and the political chaos around Brexit, there are still good reasons to think that GDP grew in Q3. However, it is clear that the performance of... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC tanker is turning In recent years the economy has been moving towards full capacity, but at this week’s meeting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) judged that it has changed direction and slack is now opening up... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
