UK Economics Weekly Growth up, unjustified Brexit optimism, the end of austerity? The latest evidence points to GDP growth picking up from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.5% in Q3. That would make it the strongest quarter since the end of 2016. Even so, the economy would still be on track for a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour true to form, Brexit drag on investment to continue The Labour Party announced a new policy at their conference this week that would see companies transfer some of their shares to employees. While this policy in isolation might not be too damaging for... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in inflation won’t worry MPC, Brexit mood sours The unexpected rise in inflation in August came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But we still think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can afford to sit tight until Brexit uncertainty has been... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Solid start to Q3, but Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold While Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, raised hopes that a Brexit deal will be secured soon, we suspect that an agreement is still some way off. This feeds into our forecast that sterling... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Reassuring PMIs, stubborn inflation, but rates on hold Following a weak run of data, evidence that the services sector continued to grow at a robust pace in August provided some reassurance that economic growth will maintain a steady pace for the... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don’t bank on Brexit breakthrough, consumer outlook dim The EU Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier’s suggestion that the EU is ready to offer the UK a bespoke Brexit deal has provided some reassurance that the UK is not heading for a disruptive “no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Public finances improve, retail sales lose their shine Amid the Brexit gloom and doom this week there was at least some positive news for the Chancellor. The continued strong performance of the public finances in July suggests that he will be able to... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Autumn Brexit deal less likely We have reassessed our view on the likely timing of a Brexit deal. Our working assumption is now that a deal is reached at the eleventh hour in Q1 2019, rather than in the autumn. However, we doubt... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy resilient, but “no-deal” Brexit fears grow Our central scenario envisages a smooth departure from the EU on 29th March 2019. But that outcome is far from certain. And although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no deal... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC presses ahead, economy makes a decent start to Q3 After the recent run of upbeat economic news the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to raise rates this week came as little surprise. And the hawkish tone of the Minutes and Inflation Report lent... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A good start to Q3, chance of Brexit “no deal” falls The first activity surveys for July should provide a final bit of encouragement to the MPC to raise interest rates at its meeting next Thursday. Elsewhere, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Softer data won’t deter MPC The financial markets are probably right to assume that an interest rate rise in August is still more likely than not. Somewhat counterintuitively, lower inflation might make it easier for the MPC to... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP figures keep MPC on track, Brexit plan softened May’s GDP figures this week confirmed that the economy is starting to regain some momentum. That said, growth was still pretty anaemic, raising the possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee could... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q2 rebound, edging closer to a rate hike, a soft Brexit? An encouraging set of Markit/CIPS surveys provided further evidence that the economy has rebounded in Q2. Meanwhile, in a speech this week, Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, appeared to reinforce... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hike on its way, but a dovish shift further ahead? There was nothing in the comments made by MPC members this week, nor in the latest data releases, to make us alter our view that the MPC will raise interest rates on August 2 nd. Admittedly, Jonathan... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly An August hike, manufacturing rebound, Brexit deadlock The hawkish tone of this week’s MPC Minutes supports our long-held view that the Committee will raise rates in August. Elsewhere, this week’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey provided us with some... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
