UK Economics Weekly Public finances improve, retail sales lose their shine Amid the Brexit gloom and doom this week there was at least some positive news for the Chancellor. The continued strong performance of the public finances in July suggests that he will be able to... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Autumn Brexit deal less likely We have reassessed our view on the likely timing of a Brexit deal. Our working assumption is now that a deal is reached at the eleventh hour in Q1 2019, rather than in the autumn. However, we doubt... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy resilient, but “no-deal” Brexit fears grow Our central scenario envisages a smooth departure from the EU on 29th March 2019. But that outcome is far from certain. And although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no deal... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC presses ahead, economy makes a decent start to Q3 After the recent run of upbeat economic news the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to raise rates this week came as little surprise. And the hawkish tone of the Minutes and Inflation Report lent... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A good start to Q3, chance of Brexit “no deal” falls The first activity surveys for July should provide a final bit of encouragement to the MPC to raise interest rates at its meeting next Thursday. Elsewhere, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Softer data won’t deter MPC The financial markets are probably right to assume that an interest rate rise in August is still more likely than not. Somewhat counterintuitively, lower inflation might make it easier for the MPC to... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP figures keep MPC on track, Brexit plan softened May’s GDP figures this week confirmed that the economy is starting to regain some momentum. That said, growth was still pretty anaemic, raising the possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee could... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q2 rebound, edging closer to a rate hike, a soft Brexit? An encouraging set of Markit/CIPS surveys provided further evidence that the economy has rebounded in Q2. Meanwhile, in a speech this week, Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, appeared to reinforce... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hike on its way, but a dovish shift further ahead? There was nothing in the comments made by MPC members this week, nor in the latest data releases, to make us alter our view that the MPC will raise interest rates on August 2 nd. Admittedly, Jonathan... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly An August hike, manufacturing rebound, Brexit deadlock The hawkish tone of this week’s MPC Minutes supports our long-held view that the Committee will raise rates in August. Elsewhere, this week’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey provided us with some... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we be worried by softer pay growth? We had expected the recent upward trend in nominal pay growth to come to a brief halt in April due to unfavourable base effects. But the drop in the annual growth rate of average earnings (excluding... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger data keeps August hike on the cards Economic growth of 0.4% or so in Q2 – as suggested by the latest business surveys – would normally be pretty respectable. But coming after Q1’s snow-related slowdown, it looks a little soft. What’s... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Italian troubles shouldn’t worry the MPC While the fall in gilt yields over the past fortnight partly reflects an increase in safe haven demand, expectations for future interest rates have also slipped back. It seems unlikely, though, that... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Early signs of a consumer revival Annual consumer spending growth ground to its slowest pace in six years in Q1. Alongside a string of weak early indicators of spending in Q2, that called into question our forecast of a rebound in... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the strength in jobs growth last? This week’s figures suggested that the labour market is in rude health. Admittedly, some of the timelier measures of employment growth have started to weaken. And with the labour market now... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait too long After the sea of downbeat economic news in recent weeks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision to keep rates unchanged at its meeting in May came as little surprise. Of course, the MPC’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
