UK Economics Weekly Will the MPC walk the walk in November? Markets appear to have taken heed of the MPC’s warning this week that interest rates could rise soon. Admittedly, the MPC has talked the talk before and failed to deliver. But this time, there are a... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How is Q3 shaping up? After a disappointing first half of the year, the early evidence suggests that the UK economy has failed to re-accelerate much in the third quarter. But talk of the economy losing more momentum looks... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does rising corporate borrowing point to stronger investment? The latest business investment figures were undeniably disappointing, with quarterly growth flat-lining in Q2. But this week’s money and credit figures, which showed another strong rise in net finance... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Time to give up on a boost from trade? Almost two years on from the start of sterling’s Brexit-related slide, the effects on net trade have been disappointing. Since the pound’s fall, net trade has actually detracted from growth as opposed... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can unemployment keep falling? Despite relatively sluggish GDP growth in the first half of 2017, jobs growth has maintained a solid pace, with the unemployment rate having now fallen below the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC)... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will consumers remain resilient? Given that there have been few signs in the hard data yet of a rebalancing towards the external and corporate sectors, the fate of the economy – in the near term at least – still seems to rest in the... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is an early lift-off from the MPC now off the cards? The surprisingly-dovish reaction of sterling to the Bank of England’s August Inflation Report has led some commentators to conclude that the prospect of an interest rate hike this year is now dead and... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we no longer trust the business surveys? Once again the business surveys provided an over-optimistic reading of the economy’s health in the second quarter. This raises questions about their usefulness as a leading indicator, and suggests... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation’s dip should keep the MPC hawks at bay The markets are probably right to conclude that June’s drop in inflation, from 2.9% to 2.6%, has reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate rise. Admittedly, the dip in inflation needn’t rule out a... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling supporting tourism sector While the fall in the pound has yet to provide a significant boost to overall net trade, it has already started to support the tourism sector. And we think that net tourism spending will provide a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Still on track for a stronger Q2 Despite the dip in this week’s Markit/CIPS PMI surveys for June, they still provided some reassurance that growth will pick-up in Q2. But this week’s hard data for the industrial and construction... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is investment now driving the MPC? Amidst the rather confusing signals given by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and colleagues in recent weeks, one message to become clearer is an apparent increased focus on the question of... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the rift between MPC members growing? After a surprisingly large split in the vote at June’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, two speeches this week provided further signs of a growing rift on the Committee. Indeed, the fact that Andy... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC hawks to remain in the minority for a while yet This week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee came close to voting to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, we saw claims that austerity is now over. It is remarkable therefore that... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will political uncertainty weigh on the economy? There are reasons why the political uncertainty triggered by the hung Parliament result won’t weigh too heavily on GDP growth. After all, the UK economy has proved resilient to recent bouts of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Markets bank on comfortable Conservative win Despite the recent narrowing in the opinion polls, markets still seem to be banking on a sizeable Conservative majority in Thursday’s General Election. Any different outcome could therefore have a... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
