UK Economics Weekly Economy on track for solid Q4 The recent spate of positive economic news has prompted some to raise their forecasts for Q4 quarterly growth to as much as 0.6%, double the average seen in 2017 so far. We have our doubts over... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A solid end to 2017 Recent evidence suggests that high-street spending has provided decent support to GDP growth in Q4. Admittedly, a weaker performance off the high street suggests that overall quarterly consumer... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What to expect in 2018 This time last year, the consensus view was that the UK economy would grow by only 1% or so in 2017. But it now looks as though the economy will expand by a more reasonable 1.5%. Of course, there is a... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has inflation peaked? With inflation rising above 3% in November, there are some reasons to think that it has now reached a peak. It remains the case that the primary driver of the rise in inflation has been the slide in... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will manufacturing provide much-needed support to growth? There have been encouraging signs that stronger growth in manufacturing is helping to offset the slowdown in the consumer-facing parts of the services sector. Indeed, according to the Markit/CIPS... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the gloom on investment justified? A slowdown in investment growth is one of the main factors underpinning the consensus expectation for economic growth to slow in 2018. That comes despite the fact that ordinary drivers of investment... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy? Given the persistently disappointing performance of productivity, it is entirely understandable that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) decided in this week’s Budget to adopt more pessimistic... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the labour market succumbing to Brexit uncertainty? The strength of the labour market has been a key source of comfort since the Brexit vote. But this week’s labour market figures – which revealed a 14,000 fall in employment in the three months to... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a major threat to the inflation outlook As a result of the rise in oil prices in recent weeks, CPI inflation will certainly be a bit higher than we had previously anticipated in the near term. This suggests that it won’t be long before the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC will become less dovish in time While the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to increase Bank Rate for the first time in a decade was largely priced into financial markets ahead of the November meeting, the Committee struck... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Scope for pick-up in growth as inflation falls It’s fair to say that there was a certain amount of relief following this week’s GDP figures, which showed that the economy re-gained a bit of pace in Q3. But this hasn’t alleviated concerns that a... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still on track for a November hike While it is far from a done deal, there was nothing in the comments made by MPC members this week, or the latest economic data releases, to make us alter our view that the MPC will press ahead and... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will productivity growth ever recover? The strong performance of the labour market since the financial crisis has left only limited scope for further increases in employment to continue to support GDP growth. As such, productivity growth... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the economy losing momentum? This week’s PMI surveys were undeniably disappointing and have led some to question whether this is the start of a more pronounced slowdown. However, there are two reasons why we think that concerns... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can corporates stomach higher interest rates? Private non-financial companies are unlikely to have any difficulty coping with increases in interest costs ahead. First, the scale of the increase in Bank Rate is set to be fairly trivial by past... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How hard would higher interest rates hit consumers? The prospect of the first rise in interest rates in a decade has raised concerns about what impact it would have on the already beleaguered consumer. But modest rises in interest rates shouldn’t put a... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
