UK Economics Weekly Time to throw in the towel on growth? (No) Recent news on the UK economy, including the downward revision to Q4 GDP growth, appears to have lent more support to the consensus forecast of slower growth in 2018 than to our prediction of an... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should rising domestic inflationary pressure worry the MPC? Inflation proved unexpectedly sticky in January, remaining unchanged at 3.0%, contrary to the consensus expectation for it to fall. However, we don’t think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How big a risk to the economy is the market sell-off? While the sell-off in financial markets over the past week or so has been abrupt, we don’t think that it currently poses a big threat to the economic outlook. The relationship between equity prices... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC about to shorten its horizon? We have long-argued that interest rates would rise somewhat faster, and sooner, than markets expecting. Recent comments by Governor Carney offer tentative support to this view and suggest that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can the sterling rally continue? There are some reasons to think that the pound’s recent rally may struggle to go much further. Rising US interest rates could prompt something of a recovery in the ailing dollar, while Brexit... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the strong pound snuff out the net trade boost? The recent rise in the pound against the dollar to almost $1.40, its highest level since the eve of the EU referendum, raises some concerns that a valuable source of support to economic growth –... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy on track for solid Q4 The recent spate of positive economic news has prompted some to raise their forecasts for Q4 quarterly growth to as much as 0.6%, double the average seen in 2017 so far. We have our doubts over... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A solid end to 2017 Recent evidence suggests that high-street spending has provided decent support to GDP growth in Q4. Admittedly, a weaker performance off the high street suggests that overall quarterly consumer... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What to expect in 2018 This time last year, the consensus view was that the UK economy would grow by only 1% or so in 2017. But it now looks as though the economy will expand by a more reasonable 1.5%. Of course, there is a... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has inflation peaked? With inflation rising above 3% in November, there are some reasons to think that it has now reached a peak. It remains the case that the primary driver of the rise in inflation has been the slide in... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will manufacturing provide much-needed support to growth? There have been encouraging signs that stronger growth in manufacturing is helping to offset the slowdown in the consumer-facing parts of the services sector. Indeed, according to the Markit/CIPS... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the gloom on investment justified? A slowdown in investment growth is one of the main factors underpinning the consensus expectation for economic growth to slow in 2018. That comes despite the fact that ordinary drivers of investment... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy? Given the persistently disappointing performance of productivity, it is entirely understandable that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) decided in this week’s Budget to adopt more pessimistic... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the labour market succumbing to Brexit uncertainty? The strength of the labour market has been a key source of comfort since the Brexit vote. But this week’s labour market figures – which revealed a 14,000 fall in employment in the three months to... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a major threat to the inflation outlook As a result of the rise in oil prices in recent weeks, CPI inflation will certainly be a bit higher than we had previously anticipated in the near term. This suggests that it won’t be long before the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC will become less dovish in time While the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to increase Bank Rate for the first time in a decade was largely priced into financial markets ahead of the November meeting, the Committee struck... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
