UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC right to turn hawkish? While it came as no surprise that the US Federal Reserve pressed ahead and raised interest rates last week, markets were given a jolt by an unexpected split on the UK Monetary Policy Committee, with... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did the Chancellor ease back on the fiscal squeeze? While the Spring Budget has generated a lot of political controversy, it was a fairly dull affair from a macroeconomic perspective. Even if the policy to raise National Insurance Contributions on the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of higher costs will firms absorb? Companies’ margins are starting to bear the brunt of the exchange-rate induced rise in costs. And given the deterioration in consumer confidence, slower employment growth and the strong competitive... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Headline GDP figures not quite what they seem On the face of it, last week’s GDP figures were encouraging. After all, they indicated that the economy accelerated at the end of last year, and suggested that the post-referendum drop in the pound is... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can wage growth keep up with rising inflation? Last week’s labour market and inflation figures have fueled concerns that the impact of rising inflation on real earnings will cause a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth. Indeed, rising... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Future looks brighter for manufacturing A robust rise in manufacturing activity at the end of 2016 and in the output balance of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey have raised hopes that the sector is getting back onto its feet. Admittedly... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Dec.) Today’s economic activity data added to other evidence suggesting that the economy maintained a significant amount of momentum at the end of 2016 and implies that GDP growth is becoming more balanced. 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Where do the risks to the MPC’s forecasts lie? Last week’s Inflation Report saw the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seemingly abandon “Project Fear” in favour of “Project Optimism”. Indeed, the MPC seemed upbeat on growth prospects and relaxed... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q4’s growth deals another blow to project fear The solid 0.6% expansion in UK GDP in the fourth quarter of last year provided further evidence that the vote to leave the European Union has so far had little discernible adverse effect on the UK... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rising wage growth won’t worry the MPC While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has stated that it is willing to look through a period of exchange-rate driven above-target inflation, one of its conditions is that there are no significant... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about a consumer boom? The recent strong growth of unsecured household borrowing has prompted concerns that, far from snapping their wallets shut in response to Brexit worries, UK consumers have embarked on another credit... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are even we too pessimistic on growth? While we have been considerably more upbeat than other forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy in 2017, the positive tone of recent indicators suggests that even we might have been a bit too... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Taking stock, six months after the referendum As well as being the end of the year, it is now six months since the UK voted to leave the EU and so it is a good time to take stock of where we are, what we got right, what we got wrong, and what to... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) The latest Quarterly National Accounts suggest that the economy grew more quickly after the referendum than previously estimated. Moreover, the latest surveys suggest that the economy will turn in... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should inflation expectations concern the MPC? The MPC has not surprisingly emphasised the importance of inflation expectations in determining the degree to which it is prepared to tolerate an overshoot of the inflation target. After all, low... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the consumer spending spree last? There are concerns that the expected rise in inflation will cause consumer spending growth to slow sharply ahead. Indeed, households would probably have to run their saving rates far below all-time... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
