UK Economics Weekly Will growth rebound? April’s business surveys provide hope that GDP growth will rebound in Q2 from the sharp slowdown in Q1 confirmed in this week’s official figures. Indeed, the Markit/CIPS PMI is now consistent with... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Do voters have a real fiscal choice this time? The release of party manifestos this week highlighted that, unlike in recent elections, the two main parties offer voters a real fiscal choice this time. Labour would borrow significantly more than... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the housing market heading for a major downturn? This week’s news brought further signs that the housing market is cooling and could suggest that we are on the cusp of a house price slump. But we doubt that the various indications of softness... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 1992 or 2008? Updated Recent news on the economy might suggest that the effects of the pound’s post-referendum depreciation will be closer to those seen after the pound’s fall in 2008 – which raised inflation and squeezed... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does more need to be done to bring the deficit down? The large fall in public borrowing in the 2016-17 fiscal year could suggest that the process of deficit reduction is almost complete and that the Conservatives can keep their pledge not to raise the... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Hammond now “reset” fiscal policy? By freeing the Government from its previous manifesto commitments, the snap general election on June 8th could give the Chancellor Phillip Hammond (if he is still in the position) more elbow room to... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Squeeze on real incomes won’t be too severe After two-and-a-half years of rising real wages, this week’s inflation and labour market figures confirmed that the pay squeeze has returned. And, with inflation rising faster than expected, some... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much did growth slow in Q1? The survey data have provided evidence that the slowdown in Q1 has not been too stark. And although the official figures have been weak in Q1 so far, temporary factors have been at play suggesting... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are consumers’ finances healthy as Brexit begins? Last week’s historic triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty marks the beginning of a lengthy and complex process of leaving the EU. The extent to which this event has a near-term impact on the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have we underestimated sterling’s inflation impact? CPI inflation surprised on the upside again last week, largely due to a few components that tend to be more responsive to exchange rate movements. This begs the question of whether we (and many others... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC right to turn hawkish? While it came as no surprise that the US Federal Reserve pressed ahead and raised interest rates last week, markets were given a jolt by an unexpected split on the UK Monetary Policy Committee, with... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did the Chancellor ease back on the fiscal squeeze? While the Spring Budget has generated a lot of political controversy, it was a fairly dull affair from a macroeconomic perspective. Even if the policy to raise National Insurance Contributions on the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of higher costs will firms absorb? Companies’ margins are starting to bear the brunt of the exchange-rate induced rise in costs. And given the deterioration in consumer confidence, slower employment growth and the strong competitive... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Headline GDP figures not quite what they seem On the face of it, last week’s GDP figures were encouraging. After all, they indicated that the economy accelerated at the end of last year, and suggested that the post-referendum drop in the pound is... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can wage growth keep up with rising inflation? Last week’s labour market and inflation figures have fueled concerns that the impact of rising inflation on real earnings will cause a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth. Indeed, rising... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Future looks brighter for manufacturing A robust rise in manufacturing activity at the end of 2016 and in the output balance of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey have raised hopes that the sector is getting back onto its feet. Admittedly... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
