UK Economics Weekly Amidst the chaos, downside Brexit risk to growth dwindles After another turbulent week in UK politics, we are no closer to knowing what form Brexit will take. Nonetheless, we think that the chances of a softer Brexit or no Brexit – which would be sterling... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly PMI’s too pessimistic, 50 shades of Brexit The deterioration in the business surveys in November was probably partly driven by growing fears that the Brexit mess will not be sorted out in time to avoid a no deal rather than an actual fall in... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit polarises the outlook for interest rates The Bank of England’s harrowing assessment of the consequences of a “no deal ” Brexit grabbed the headlines this week. But it was designed to be an extreme scenario, and based on some implausible... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly All Brexit options still on the table A rejection of the Brexit deal in Parliament in mid-December remains a very real prospect. And we would not rule anything out amidst the political chaos that would follow. In our predictions based on... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deal dead on arrival, earnings on the up With Theresa May’s EU deal already seemingly dead in the water and speculation rife that a no-confidence vote in her leadership is imminent, the chances of the UK heading for either a “no deal” Brexit... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Growth slowing again, Brexit backstop bickering We don’t find the apparent slowdown in economic growth at the start of Q4 too worrying. After all, growth was always likely to ease as the boost to the retail sector from hot weather and the football... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The fiscal winds change, higher rates on the horizon Philip “the fiscal hawk” Hammond was surprisingly generous in the Budget on Monday, spending his entire windfall from the downward revision to the OBR’s borrowing forecast. This means that rather than... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Hammond’s luck is in, rates on hold, Brexit a hindrance The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will hand the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, a get-out-of-jail-free card by slashing its forecast for the deficit this year in Monday’s Budget. This will allow... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deadlock, outlook for real pay brightens The October European Council meeting – long billed as the moment when a Brexit deal would be done and dusted – has come and gone. And the UK and EU positions look as irreconcilable as ever. While we... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger growth based on shaky foundations We are gradually getting a clearer idea of how GDP growth in the third quarter shaped up. And so far, it is looking like it will be a pretty good number. But we doubt that the recent improvement will... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Growth up, unjustified Brexit optimism, the end of austerity? The latest evidence points to GDP growth picking up from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.5% in Q3. That would make it the strongest quarter since the end of 2016. Even so, the economy would still be on track for a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour true to form, Brexit drag on investment to continue The Labour Party announced a new policy at their conference this week that would see companies transfer some of their shares to employees. While this policy in isolation might not be too damaging for... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in inflation won’t worry MPC, Brexit mood sours The unexpected rise in inflation in August came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But we still think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can afford to sit tight until Brexit uncertainty has been... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Solid start to Q3, but Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold While Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, raised hopes that a Brexit deal will be secured soon, we suspect that an agreement is still some way off. This feeds into our forecast that sterling... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Reassuring PMIs, stubborn inflation, but rates on hold Following a weak run of data, evidence that the services sector continued to grow at a robust pace in August provided some reassurance that economic growth will maintain a steady pace for the... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don’t bank on Brexit breakthrough, consumer outlook dim The EU Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier’s suggestion that the EU is ready to offer the UK a bespoke Brexit deal has provided some reassurance that the UK is not heading for a disruptive “no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
