UK Economics Weekly Parliament hits Brexit back to May Parliament hit the Brexit ball back into May’s court this week, leaving us with no clearer picture of how Brexit might unfold than we had this time last week. But beneath the bouncing Brexit headlines... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament grabbing the wheel steers sterling higher While the vote in Parliament next Tuesday might not break the Brexit deadlock, it could give us a better steer on where the UK is headed. After all, MPs will vote on a series of amendments which could... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sentiment, not fundamentals, weighing on activity UK politics remains in meltdown. And there are plenty of signs that this is weighing on sentiment. But beneath this, the economy is well placed to benefit if and when the Brexit uncertainty lifts. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Waiting for the Brexit handbrake to be released The most likely Brexit outcome, for now at least, appears to be a delay of a few months beyond March. While this means that we will have to wait a little longer for the Brexit handbrake on the economy... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Slow growth, Christmas spending & stockpiling Much like a drone over an airport runway, Brexit is preventing the UK economy from taking off in 2019. But the foundations are in place for growth to fly once (if) Brexit lands. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Could the UK top the G7 growth table in 2019? Clearly what form Brexit takes (if it takes place at all!) will be the key influence on the economy next year, but our sense is that there is a bit more upside to GDP growth and the pound than widely... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Amidst the chaos, downside Brexit risk to growth dwindles After another turbulent week in UK politics, we are no closer to knowing what form Brexit will take. Nonetheless, we think that the chances of a softer Brexit or no Brexit – which would be sterling... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly PMI’s too pessimistic, 50 shades of Brexit The deterioration in the business surveys in November was probably partly driven by growing fears that the Brexit mess will not be sorted out in time to avoid a no deal rather than an actual fall in... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit polarises the outlook for interest rates The Bank of England’s harrowing assessment of the consequences of a “no deal ” Brexit grabbed the headlines this week. But it was designed to be an extreme scenario, and based on some implausible... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly All Brexit options still on the table A rejection of the Brexit deal in Parliament in mid-December remains a very real prospect. And we would not rule anything out amidst the political chaos that would follow. In our predictions based on... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deal dead on arrival, earnings on the up With Theresa May’s EU deal already seemingly dead in the water and speculation rife that a no-confidence vote in her leadership is imminent, the chances of the UK heading for either a “no deal” Brexit... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Growth slowing again, Brexit backstop bickering We don’t find the apparent slowdown in economic growth at the start of Q4 too worrying. After all, growth was always likely to ease as the boost to the retail sector from hot weather and the football... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The fiscal winds change, higher rates on the horizon Philip “the fiscal hawk” Hammond was surprisingly generous in the Budget on Monday, spending his entire windfall from the downward revision to the OBR’s borrowing forecast. This means that rather than... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Hammond’s luck is in, rates on hold, Brexit a hindrance The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will hand the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, a get-out-of-jail-free card by slashing its forecast for the deficit this year in Monday’s Budget. This will allow... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deadlock, outlook for real pay brightens The October European Council meeting – long billed as the moment when a Brexit deal would be done and dusted – has come and gone. And the UK and EU positions look as irreconcilable as ever. While we... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger growth based on shaky foundations We are gradually getting a clearer idea of how GDP growth in the third quarter shaped up. And so far, it is looking like it will be a pretty good number. But we doubt that the recent improvement will... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
