UK Economics Weekly Another Brexit delay looms A no deal Brexit still can’t be ruled out next Friday 12th April, but the risk has been significantly reduced by the Prime Minister asking the EU for another delay until 30th June 2019. We suspect the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: Two years on and two weeks to go The original Brexit day (29 th March) is upon us, yet the end point and the consequences for the economy and the financial markets are as unclear as ever. As the dust of this week settles, the four... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit delayed, but choice of destinations remains the same The postponement of Brexit removes the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal next Friday. But Parliament is still facing the same four Brexit options it always has; deal, no deal, revoke... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Little Brexit clarity, but at least the economy is coping well The Brexit merry-go-round continued this week, with the voting in Parliament providing little clarity on where the UK is headed and prolonging the political uncertainty weighing on the economy. Indeed... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit crunch time Next week is likely to be the biggest week for Brexit since the referendum, with crucial Parliamentary votes likely to give us some steer on where the UK is headed. Of course, it is perfectly possible... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Chances of no deal receding This week’s political developments mean that the chances of no deal have fallen, which probably justifies the jump in sterling. But the real economy is still suffering from Brexit uncertainty. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market resilient, sterling unmoved by political split After a worrying start to the year, the economic news this week has been a little better. This supports our view that while Brexit uncertainty is hampering growth, the economy is fundamentally sound... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Things might get worse before they get better It has been a worrying week for the economy. The Q4 GDP figures bore out the story that the global economic slowdown and Brexit worries are weighing on growth. And it increasingly looks like Brexit... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s change of heart might be overdone The Bank of England drove a bulldozer through its near-term projections this week as it ratcheted up the severity of Brexit uncertainty and the corresponding impact on the economy in its forecast. We... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament hits Brexit back to May Parliament hit the Brexit ball back into May’s court this week, leaving us with no clearer picture of how Brexit might unfold than we had this time last week. But beneath the bouncing Brexit headlines... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament grabbing the wheel steers sterling higher While the vote in Parliament next Tuesday might not break the Brexit deadlock, it could give us a better steer on where the UK is headed. After all, MPs will vote on a series of amendments which could... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sentiment, not fundamentals, weighing on activity UK politics remains in meltdown. And there are plenty of signs that this is weighing on sentiment. But beneath this, the economy is well placed to benefit if and when the Brexit uncertainty lifts. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Waiting for the Brexit handbrake to be released The most likely Brexit outcome, for now at least, appears to be a delay of a few months beyond March. While this means that we will have to wait a little longer for the Brexit handbrake on the economy... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Slow growth, Christmas spending & stockpiling Much like a drone over an airport runway, Brexit is preventing the UK economy from taking off in 2019. But the foundations are in place for growth to fly once (if) Brexit lands. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Could the UK top the G7 growth table in 2019? Clearly what form Brexit takes (if it takes place at all!) will be the key influence on the economy next year, but our sense is that there is a bit more upside to GDP growth and the pound than widely... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Amidst the chaos, downside Brexit risk to growth dwindles After another turbulent week in UK politics, we are no closer to knowing what form Brexit will take. Nonetheless, we think that the chances of a softer Brexit or no Brexit – which would be sterling... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
