UK Economics Weekly Prime Minister May falls, CPI inflation rises The announcement by the Prime Minister that she will resign appears to have generated even more political uncertainty for the Bank of England to deal with. The Bank will be thankful, then, that... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit sabbatical drawing to a close If you have been enjoying the respite from incessant Brexit headlines over the past few weeks, I’m afraid it’s bad news. This week’s fall in the pound to a three-month low of $1.28 reflects Brexit... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grey clouds on the horizon for the labour market Preparations for the moving target of Brexit day flattered the Q1 GDP figures and therefore could give way to a hangover in Q2. But this should just be a timing effect. How the labour market performs... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC takes a hawkish turn, Brexit hangover in Q2 The most surprising news from the Bank of England’s Inflation Report this week was not the suggestion that interest rates need to rise more quickly than the markets currently anticipate, but the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in borrowing, rise in inflation, local elections looming The recent rise in oil prices adds to our view that inflation is likely to be higher over the next couple of years than is widely expected. This only increases the chances that, eventually, the Bank... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Beautifully behaved The unemployment rate is close to the natural rate, inflation is close to the target and GDP growth is close to the economy’s potential rate, but interest rates are well below most estimates of the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The oversight on stockbuilding A lot of the chatter about how stockbuilding ahead of Brexit has boosted GDP growth in Q1 ignores the fact that businesses buy many components from overseas. That’s why imports have been rising at a... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Another Brexit delay looms A no deal Brexit still can’t be ruled out next Friday 12th April, but the risk has been significantly reduced by the Prime Minister asking the EU for another delay until 30th June 2019. We suspect the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: Two years on and two weeks to go The original Brexit day (29 th March) is upon us, yet the end point and the consequences for the economy and the financial markets are as unclear as ever. As the dust of this week settles, the four... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit delayed, but choice of destinations remains the same The postponement of Brexit removes the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal next Friday. But Parliament is still facing the same four Brexit options it always has; deal, no deal, revoke... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Little Brexit clarity, but at least the economy is coping well The Brexit merry-go-round continued this week, with the voting in Parliament providing little clarity on where the UK is headed and prolonging the political uncertainty weighing on the economy. Indeed... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit crunch time Next week is likely to be the biggest week for Brexit since the referendum, with crucial Parliamentary votes likely to give us some steer on where the UK is headed. Of course, it is perfectly possible... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Chances of no deal receding This week’s political developments mean that the chances of no deal have fallen, which probably justifies the jump in sterling. But the real economy is still suffering from Brexit uncertainty. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market resilient, sterling unmoved by political split After a worrying start to the year, the economic news this week has been a little better. This supports our view that while Brexit uncertainty is hampering growth, the economy is fundamentally sound... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Things might get worse before they get better It has been a worrying week for the economy. The Q4 GDP figures bore out the story that the global economic slowdown and Brexit worries are weighing on growth. And it increasingly looks like Brexit... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s change of heart might be overdone The Bank of England drove a bulldozer through its near-term projections this week as it ratcheted up the severity of Brexit uncertainty and the corresponding impact on the economy in its forecast. We... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
