UK Economics Weekly Easing envy, Bank having a good crisis so far Brits will have to cope with “easing envy” for a while yet as it appears as though when the government reviews the coronavirus lockdown next Thursday it will just publish a “road map” of how to reopen... 1st May 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Hit to employment to prevent a perfect V-shaped recovery The big declines in retail sales volumes in March and in the PMI activity surveys in April make it clear that the slump in activity has been unprecedented in terms of its speed and its severity. We... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Some parts of the economy may take five years to recover We fear that the Office for Budget Responsibility’s view that there won’t be a lasting economic legacy from the coronavirus crisis is too optimistic. We think it will take almost three years for the... 17th April 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Hit to economic health will linger for years With the number of people fighting COVID-19 in hospital rising day by day, the recent talk of an “exit strategy” from the lockdown appears premature. Even when the restrictions are lifted, consumer... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Government schemes falling down in practice Despite policymakers’ best efforts, it is looking more likely that the unemployment rate and businesses insolvencies could rise as high as in the Global Financial Crisis. 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers do their utmost, but some damage already done The UK Chancellor’s support for self-employed workers takes the total size of the government’s package of direct tax and spending measures to £119bn (5.3% of GDP). Even so, this unparalleled policy... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Health crisis => economic crisis => financial crisis? There is no doubt that the coronavirus health crisis has already led to an economic crisis and this week we saw the first real signs of severe disruption in the financial markets. Whatever happens, an... 20th March 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A recession and more policy action is coming As it seems increasingly inevitable that a further spread of the coronavirus will have a significant impact on the economy, we are changing our forecasts. We now expect a recession that will involve... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Coronavirus complicates new policymakers’ task The drop back in equity prices this week heaps more pressure on the new head honchos at the Treasury and the Bank of England to deliver some measures to help mitigate the economic effects of the... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Could the markets force the MPC to cut rates? The sharp falls in equity prices show that things are moving fast and this week we revised down our 2020 GDP growth forecast to reflect the damage to the global economy from the coronavirus. But the... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economic rebound in progress, but clouds on the horizon The first official data for January piled more evidence onto our view that the economy will rebound in Q1 2020 after hitting a nadir in Q4 2019. But the growing impact of coronavirus on China’s... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Change of Chancellor increases upsides for economy We had already been expecting fiscal policy to provide a decent boost to economic growth over the next couple of years, but the changing of the Chancellor this week means that boost could turn out to... 14th February 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A decent fiscal boost is still on the way This week brought the clearest sign yet that the economy has turned a corner. And with the prospect of a fiscal loosening in the Budget on 11th March likely to provide a further lift to GDP growth, we... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rate call on track, a Brexit transition into the unknown Thursday’s interest rate decision was a good first step on the road to vindicating our view that interest rates won’t be cut this year. And the Bank’s new forecast suggests that the bar to a rate cut... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The U-turns of the markets and the Chancellor The rebound in the activity PMIs have caused the markets to do something of a U-turn and they are now broadly in line our view that interest rates will probably be left at 0.75% at next Thursday’s MPC... 24th January 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data distortions make the MPC’s job more difficult A flurry of weak data this week has sent money markets into a tailspin. But we suspect that the MPC will just about look past the Brexit and election related distortions and will probably hold off... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
