Further signs that a strong rebound is underway

We are encouraged by the signs that a strong rebound is now underway. But the real test for the economy still lies ahead. Indeed, there are still big question marks over how willing households will be to go out and spend if fear of the virus lingers. And we are concerned that a second wave of unemployment will reduce the ability of households to spend. As a result, we suspect that the initial strong rebound will peter out in the second half of 2020 and that the government and the Bank of England will need to do more.