Will they won't they?

The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10^th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our year-end $1.35/£ forecast it seems like the market agrees. However, a Brexit deal is far from nailed on and a breakdown in negotiations could send the pound down to $1.15 in a “cooperative” no deal or $1.10 in an “uncooperative” no deal.