UK Economics Weekly How far will employment have to fall to meet GDP? The end of the national furlough scheme on 31 st October sets the stage for a sharp fall in employment. That’s why the Chancellor had to increase the generosity of the replacement Job Support Scheme... 23rd October 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pressure mounting on the Chancellor and BoE to do more With COVID-19 infections surging and the government turning to much broader and tighter restrictions, we fear that the economic recovery will soon go into reverse. That’s why we think the Chancellor... 16th October 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Calling time on the recovery The slowing of the economic recovery even before the effects of the impending local lockdowns have been felt means that the economy will take even longer than we previously thought to get back to its... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deal or no deal gulf narrows UK-EU relations deteriorated on one front this week, with the EU starting legal proceedings over the UK’s plans to undermine parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, but improved on another as negotiations... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly New restrictions 1 - 0 new government support The net effect of the new restrictions designed to help quash the coronavirus announced this week and the new support measures announced by the Chancellor yesterday will be to soften GDP growth this... 25th September 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Investment still in lockdown, negative rates back in vogue UK consumers have embraced their renewed ability to spend over the last few months but business investment is still on lockdown as uncertainty about the economic recovery, Brexit and future lockdowns... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Government in danger of undermining the recovery While the government can’t be blamed for the coronavirus, it is in control of fiscal policy and can influence the Brexit negotiations. So all the recent talk of tax hikes and the rising chances of a... 11th September 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rishi "horror show" to be postponed Despite the soaring level of public debt we doubt that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, will turn to tax rises anytime soon. If anything, we think it is likely that the Chancellor will announce further... 4th September 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slowdown in recovery will force policymakers to do more After the 8.7% m/m gain in GDP in June, another surge as the economy re-opened in July is already baked in the cake. But the high frequency indicators have provided the first signs that the pace of... 28th August 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The consequences of the pandemic for inflation The surprise rise in CPI inflation in July highlights that the effects of the pandemic will not only be deflationary. The hit to supply from the pandemic combined with shifting spending patterns may... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The “recession” for households is only just beginning The pain of the collapse in GDP has been shouldered predominately by the government and businesses while households have got off relatively lightly. But the unwinding of the government’s job furlough... 14th August 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Negative rates on the table, but BoE not reaching for them The MPC played down the prospects of negative interest rates anytime soon at its meeting this week and instead suggested that it would use the other tools in its arsenal such as forward guidance and... 7th August 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers start to withdraw support August marks the beginning of the phasing out of the extraordinary policy support that has seen the economy through the coronavirus crisis so far. The winding down of the furlough scheme while... 31st July 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data overplay extent of recovery, speed bumps lie ahead The UK’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis is not as advanced as the latest retail sales and activity PMIs suggest. Indeed, our CE Covid Recovery Tracker shows that the overall economy is... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK to lag behind in the global recovery This week marked a return to the generally gloomy news on the pace of the recovery, reinforcing our concerns that the UK recovery will be slower than in some other major economies. This has less to do... 17th July 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor may have to spend more when the recovery slows Our view that, after an initial vigorous rebound, the economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will slow later this year suggests that the further loosening in fiscal policy announced by the... 10th July 2020 · 10 mins read
