Ramifications could be bigger if PM stays than if he goes

The growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's position is unlikely to dent economic activity. Arguably, though, if a leadership challenge is avoided or Boris Johnson wins it, the medium-term political and economic ramifications could be bigger than if he steps down. Even so, we doubt recent political events will transform the economic outlook this year, which is one of inflation rising to a peak of 7% causing the economy to be weaker than most expect and the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 0.25% now to 1.25%.