Economy running on fumes

There’s little doubt that the fuel crisis and the broadening product and labour shortages will slow the UK economy’s recovery. This comes at a time when the government is unwinding its fiscal policy support and the threat of an imminent rise in interest rates looms over the economy. As a result, we now expect the economy to stagnate in September and October and to only get back to its pre-pandemic level in Q1 2022, a quarter after the euro-zone.