UK Economics UK would win the European GDP Super League If there were an economics version of the European football league, which started up and collapsed this week, where success depended on where GDP is at the end of 2022, then the UK may win with... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Haldane’s MPC departure not as dovish as it first appears Amid the reopening of shops and pubs this week, it was the subtler news that the MPC’s arch-optimist Andy Haldane is leaving the MPC at the end of June that caused a reaction in the markets. At the... 16th April 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Economy has a spring in its step It remains to be seen if this week’s news on the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine further slows the UK’s vaccination rollout. But as the government says it is still on track to vaccinate all adults by the... 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger investment reduces risk of scarring, US-UK trade war unlikely The better news on business investment gives us even more confidence in our view that there probably won’t be much, if any, long-term scarring from the pandemic. At the same time, we are not concerned... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Things are looking up, but few signs inflation will roar into life soon While the risk of an interruption to the UK’s COVID-19 vaccine supplies rose this week, the latest news on economic activity has been positive. We suspect the pandemic will lead to more inflation... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Gilt market ponders consequences of MPC inaction The continued low level of 2-year gilt yields suggests that the gilt market believes the Bank of England will keep interest rates at +0.10% for a long time yet. But the increase in gilt yields of... 19th March 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE and ECB on different paths, UK GDP preparing for the ascent The worst of the effects from both COVID-19 and Brexit are now probably behind the economy and, as long as there is not another surge in virus cases, GDP should quickly climb over the next few months... 12th March 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Big fiscal boost when economy weak, smaller drag when it’s stronger The measures announced in this week’s Budget support the economy when it is most in need and are a smaller drag once the economy is more able to deal with it. As a result, there is an upside to our... 5th March 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Markets reading the roadmap to higher interest rates wrong The surge in 10-year gilt yields to a one-year high of more than 0.80% this week has been driven by the markets’ expectations that the economic recovery will prompt the Bank of England to raise... 26th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Lockdown exit plan to shed light on speed of the recovery The sharp fall in retail sales in January suggested that January’s lockdown hit the economy harder than November’s lockdown. But at least it doesn’t look like things deteriorated further in February... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Lost summer holiday season won’t delay GDP rebound The possibility that international travel restrictions could remain in place this summer implies that the rapid vaccine rollout in the UK won’t be enough to ensure a swift return to normality for the... 12th February 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two upsides to our upbeat forecasts There are still plenty of downside risks to our upbeat economic forecasts, but the events of this week highlighted two upside risks. First, the rapid rollout of vaccines means COVID-19 restrictions... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market having a remarkably good crisis The labour market has been remarkably strong since the onset of the pandemic. And even if the unemployment rate does rise to 6.5% by the end of this year, as we expect, the government would probably... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two risks to our recovery hopes Rumours of tax rises in the Budget in March and speculation that the population has shrunk sharply both threaten our view that the economy will eventually enjoy a quick and complete recovery from the... 22nd January 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly COVID-19 economic hole far smaller November’s GDP figures which suggested that the economy ended 2020 in a far better position than we had thought and the promising start to the vaccine roll out have given us some cause for optimism... 15th January 2021 · 8 mins read
