Outlook brightening, but risk politicians mess it up

COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook beyond the next few months. But there is risk that politicians will darken it again if they allow what we’re calling an “uncooperative” no deal Brexit at the end of the year or if the Chancellor tightens fiscal policy. We think tightening fiscal policy soon would be a mistake and that the Chancellor would be better off giving the economy more time to climb back to its pre-pandemic trend.