Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the GM strike, austerity in Colombia The knock-on effects of the strike by GM auto workers in the US mean that the Mexican manufacturing figures due in the coming months will make for grim reading. But if GM’s deal with striking workers... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Protests in Ecuador, soft Latam inflation Intensifying anti-austerity protests in Ecuador have threatened the government’s reform agenda and caused bond spreads to widen this week. But even if the government does water down its fiscal plans... 11th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru’s political crisis, dire surveys in Mexico The political turmoil that erupted in Peru earlier this week now seems to be fizzling out, supporting our view that it will have a limited impact on the economy. Elsewhere, we suspect that the Mexican... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer recovery, Mexico’s USMCA fears Figures published this week support our view that Brazilian household spending will strengthen over the coming quarters. But with the 2020 budget setting out further fiscal tightening, the overall... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina in pre-vote limbo, Brazil easing continues The latest data added to the evidence that Argentina’s recession deepened in Q3. Financial markets have stabilised more recently, but we doubt that the country will make any real progress in resolving... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex cash injection, resilient Brazilian consumers The decision by Mexican policymakers this week to provide support to Pemex to help it refinance its debts adds to signs that policymakers are starting to acknowledge the gravity of the problems at the... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine capital controls, Chile cuts, weakness in Brazil The introduction of capital controls in Argentina last weekend seems to have stabilised the official foreign exchange market, but it is likely to have pernicious economic effects. Moreover, while... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Scepticism surrounding Argentina’s reprofiling plan The Argentine government’s debt reprofiling plan has been greeted with some scepticism, and we think markets will remain under pressure unless investors see evidence of joined-up thinking between... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s faltering recovery, Argentina’s debt crisis Data due next week are likely to show that Brazil’s economy stagnated in Q2, and the early evidence suggests that the economy remained weak at the start of Q3. A 50bp interest rate cut at the next... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina crisis wrap, limited contagion, Banxico The Argentine peso has stabilised over the past few trading days but the collapse earlier this week has made a sovereign debt default highly likely. The good news is that contagion to the rest of the... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A primer on Argentina’s primaries, Banxico to cut Argentine markets are likely to take their cue from the outcome of Sunday’s primary elections when they open next week, but we would caution that the vote doesn’t always foreshadow the presidential... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico stimulus, Colombia austerity, dovish surprises The Mexican government’s fiscal stimulus, unveiled this week, looks large enough to support an economic recovery in the second half of the year, but raises medium term fiscal risks. In contrast... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & recession fears, Brazil stimulus Mexico’s preliminary Q2 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that the economy stagnated, dodging a technical recession. But whether the growth figure is above zero or not, the key point is... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex yields to rise further, Chile to cut rates The Mexican government’s underwhelming business plan for troubled state-owned oil company, Pemex, reinforces our view that it is not willing to implement the reforms necessary to stabilise oil... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico moving towards rate cuts, Brazil’s pension bill The minutes to the last Mexican central bank meeting, published yesterday, revealed a more dovish shift on the Bank’s Board than we had expected. We now think that an interest rate cut at the next... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil: pension reform progress, Copom shifting tone Brazil’s much-vaunted pension reform passed an important legislative hurdle this week, although the bill is likely to come up against more substantial resistance in the coming weeks. In the meantime... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
