Latin America Economics Weekly Currencies rally, easing lockdowns, IMF and Argentina Latin American currencies have outperformed this week amid the improvement in global risk appetite, but this largely seems to reflect the fact that they had fallen furthest in the first place. In the... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico set for further easing, early signs of fiscal hit Banxico’s latest Quarterly Report and the minutes to its mid-May meeting suggests that more monetary easing is on the cards. Otherwise, the April fiscal data for Brazil and Argentina show early signs... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Covid hotspots, GDP falls, austerity in Ecuador Parts of Latin America are seeing some of the sharpest rises in new coronavirus cases globally, meaning that lockdown measures – and the corresponding hit to activity – are likely to remain in place... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian politics getting messy, Chile’s FCL and bonds The unfolding political crisis in Brazil has continued to put local financial markets under pressure and it's increasingly difficult to see the political risk premium on asset prices evaporating... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina jostling with creditors, severe GDP falls This week brought further evidence that Argentina’s government and bondholders remain far apart on a restructuring deal and, unless both sides thrash out something quickly, talks could get bogged down... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s political crisis, Pemex troubles While the deluge of depressing economic data has grabbed the headlines in most regions, in Latin America, Brazil's political crisis has taken up the most column inches. Although the crisis has eased a... 1st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly More pain for oil producers, Argentina hardball tactics The dramatic collapse in oil prices earlier this week will probably deepen Venezuela's shocking humanitarian crisis, and may prompt Ecuador to seek greater debt relief. Meanwhile, the Argentine... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s ‘war budget’, regional debt problems The Brazilian president’s determination to roll back lockdown measures caused him to fire his health minister this week but, with states and municipalities taking the lead of containment policies, it... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s ‘reactivation’ plan, Argentina & default The economic ‘reactivation’ plan unveiled by Mexico’s president to counter the effects of the coronavirus underwhelmed. With the government reluctant to provide significant fiscal support, Banxico... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s downturn, Peru & the IMF The early data for March supported our view that Mexico’s economy is suffering a fall in output that is at least as bad as it was during the Global Financial Crisis. And the government’s reluctance to... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro behind the curve, Ecuador debt talks Confirmed cases of the coronavirus have surged to nearly 3,000 in Brazil over the past week, and the stumbling response from President Bolsonaro could deepen and prolong the economic damage. Elsewhere... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Set for sharp falls in output, more rate cuts We now think that the growing economic damage caused by the coronavirus will result in falls in GDP across Latin America. For the region as a whole, we expect that output will decline by about 2% this... 20th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New forecasts, limited policy responses It now seems likely that the effects of the coronavirus will take a heavier toll on Latin American economies than we previously thought, so we’ve revised down our 2020 growth forecasts across the... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s slow recovery, forecast downgrades, rate cuts The Brazilian Q4 GDP data released this week confirmed that the economy fell short of expectations again in 2019 and, with the coronavirus likely to weigh on the economy over the coming months, we’ve... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil in disarray, hawkish Banxico, Ecuador’s bonds A worrying flare-up in Brazilian domestic politics, alongside mounting coronavirus fears and a widening current account deficit, is likely to keep Brazil’s financial markets and the real under... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s RRRs, Mexican optimism, Argentine debt saga Moves by Brazil’s central bank this week, including a large cut in required reserve ratios, suggest that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the faltering economic recovery. Comments from... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
