Latin America Economics Weekly Carnival hangover for real & Argentine peso The sharp falls in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real in the second half of the week reflected both worsening global risk appetite and domestic political concerns. A few weeks ago it had felt that... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s pensions, new BCB governor, Mexican bonds Noises from Brazilian lawmakers this week hinted that parts of the government’s pension reform plan could be diluted. But so far, the core components of the bill do not appear to have come up against... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s IMF deal to sustain bond rally, ARS drop Ecuador’s IMF deal announced this week will help to anchor President Lenín Moreno’s austerity drive and sustain the rally in sovereign bonds. Meanwhile, the Argentine peso has come under renewed... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex’s sticking plaster, Argentina’s fiscal rumours The bailout package announced earlier today by Mexico’s president for the ailing state-owned oil company Pemex is unlikely to arrest the alarming decline in oil output and prevent yields on Pemex debt... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guedes’ ambitious pension bill, Banxico statements Details of Brazilian Finance Minister Paulo Guedes’ pension reform unveiled this week are impressive, but political realities could yet scupper these plans. Elsewhere, despite the hawkish statement... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela’s lessons from history, Vale impact Venezuelan dollar bonds have continued to rally this week on hopes of a swift political transition, debt restructuring and economic overhaul, but history suggests that this could prove optimistic... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lenín going to the IMF, Venezuela’s crisis deepens Speculation is growing that Ecuador’s president, Lenín Moreno, will seek an IMF deal in the coming months, and history suggests that the recent rally in sovereign dollar bonds has further to run... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Weakness in ARS to continue, noisy Brazil data The Argentine peso has given up some of its recent gains against the dollar this week, and we expect further weakness over the coming months. Elsewhere, better-than-expected Brazilian retail sales... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s pension reform push, Mexico fuel shortages Brazil’s government is reportedly close to agreeing a pension reform bill, but we still think that political realities may end up diluting or stalling welfare reform. Elsewhere, the Mexican government... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro boost continues, Banxico a bit less hawkish Brazilian markets have performed strongly this week as hopes for business-friendly reforms under President Jair Bolsonaro have continued to build, but we think that the rally may run out of steam... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela debt crisis phase II, what to watch in 2019 News that creditors have started the process for triggering an “acceleration” clause in one of Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds suggests that, after a lengthy impasse, the debt crisis is likely to... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s first budget, Argentina in recession Mexico’s 2019 budget that will be presented to Congress on Saturday looks set to (unrealistically) target a primary budget surplus. But, more importantly, if spending is projected to rise by much more... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pricing Amlo risk, Brazil’s GDP quirk Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s announcement that he will postpone oil auctions adds to a series of populist moves that have rattled local markets, and we reckon this has resulted in a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico blames Amlo, commodities driving BRL again The minutes to Banxico’s latest interest rate meeting send a clear message that the recent policy shift under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) will result in further rate hikes. Elsewhere... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s referendums, Colombia’s fiscal challenge The market reaction to the incoming Mexican government’s public consultation is unlikely to be as bad as the last one, which voted to scrap a flagship airport project. Even so, it provides more... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine political risk, Levy’s BNDES challenge Argentina’s Senate this week passed the government’s IMF-endorsed austerity budget for next year, but bond markets are starting to share our concerns over mounting political risks surrounding October... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
