Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Upcoming Amlo flashpoints, Brazil’s pension hurdles The decision by Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to cancel the Texcoco airport construction spooked local markets, and upcoming decisions on the 2019 budget and oil field... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost; Amlo, energy and populism The growing optimism in Brazil’s markets about a likely victory for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election this Sunday is increasingly difficult to square with events on the ground. In Mexico... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s reform agenda, BCB rates hikes The plans outlined by Brazil’s likely next president, Jair Bolsonaro, to tackle some of the causes of Brazil’s productivity problem should be welcomed. But his apparent waning commitment to fiscal and... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro backtracking, Argentina’s austerity Business friendly candidate Jair Bolsonaro looks on course to win the second round of Brazil’s presidential election later this month, but recent noises from the campaign trail have called into... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost, Banxico’s dissenter The sharp rally in Brazilian asset prices this week appears to reflect growing expectations that right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro will win the presidential election, the first round of which is on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & IMF, Brazil’s fiscal woes, Mexico-US deal The market reaction to Argentina’s revamped IMF deal suggests that, while investors believe that sovereign default risks over the next year or so have receded, they remain elevated further out... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Haddad mimicking Amlo, Argentina’s bigger IMF deal Support for Fernando Haddad, the presidential candidate of Brazil’s Workers’ Party, has risen over the past week and recent comments suggest that he is trying to distance himself from the party’s left... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina budget concerns, Brazil election heating up Argentina’s 2019 budget will reportedly contain some much-needed spending cuts, but key IMF requests are conspicuous by their absence. Meanwhile, Brazil’s election race is beginning to heat up, but... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Is Macri a busted flush? The export tax announced by Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri this week, which formed the centrepiece of an emergency fiscal austerity package, will help to narrow the budget deficit. But the fact... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina relapses, Mexican peso muted on trade deal The sense of crisis that engulfed Argentina on Wednesday and Thursday seems to have eased today and, while there is a clear risk that the currency falls further in the near term, based on the real... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico bowing to US, Lula support growing A “handshake deal” between Mexico and the US on auto trade rules is apparently close, but several hurdles must be cleared before a new Nafta treaty is agreed. Elsewhere, Brazilian markets finally seem... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election campaign, Banxico’s prudence Campaigning for Brazil’s elections in October started this week, and market-friendly candidate Geraldo Alckmin seems to have positioned himself well to mount a challenge to the leading populists... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Graft scandal rattles Argentine markets The Turkish lira may have surpassed the Argentine peso as the worst performing EM currency this year, but Argentine markets have still had a rough week. The lesson from other parts of Latin America is... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hawkish Banxico, Colombia’s austere budget Mexico’s central bank struck a hawkish tone in the statement accompanying this week’s monetary policy decision, and the markets are pricing in a good chance of another interest rate hike in the near... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Nafta talks restart, dire data from Argentina The relatively modest rise in the Mexican peso against the dollar in reaction to the positive news flow on Nafta talks suggests that investors are interpreting recent events with caution. Indeed, a... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
