Latin America Economics Weekly New BRL forecast, limited Banxico cuts, Arg. haircut The Brazilian central bank’s interventions have stabilised the real over the past 24 hours, but we think the recovery will soon run out of steam and have actually cut our end-year forecast to 4.50/$... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Buenos Aires bluff backfires, Chilean growth rebounds Argentine policymakers endured two setbacks this week, after the province of Buenos Aires failed to reprofile a $250mn capital payment and only 10% of investors accepted a sovereign debt swap worth $1... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Another rate cut in Brazil looks likely Dovish comments from Brazil’s central bank governor and the continuing shift in market expectations have prompted us to pencil in a 25bp interest rate cut next Wednesday. Chilean policymakers held... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Clues on Argentine debt, new forecasts Recent developments in Argentina, including the ongoing fiasco over Buenos Aires’ provincial debt, suggest that the national government is unlikely to reach a swift agreement with creditors to... 24th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s stuttering recovery, Buenos Aires troubles The softness of the latest Brazilian activity data adds to our view that the economic recovery this year will disappoint. Elsewhere, Argentina’s federal government refused to bail out the province of... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean peso hits a bump, AMLO’s oil dilemma The Chilean peso was the worst performing major EM currency this week, but there are still good reasons to think that it will appreciate by later this year. Elsewhere, the discovery of a major... 10th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Old tricks in Argentina, Mexico’s minimum wage hike Argentina’s government is resorting to old habits, having turned to deficit monetisation and drawing down the central bank’s FX reserves in recent weeks. While these unorthodox measures will help to... 3rd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina reprofiling, Brazilian beef & Mexico rates Argentina’s government has postponed the payment of around $9bn on Treasury bills until August 2020, reaffirming our view that a restructuring of local-law debts was on the cards. However, maturity... 20th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guessing about Guzmán, USMCA deal finalised Comments from Argentina’s President Fernández and his economy minister Martín Guzmán this week provided some relief that they don’t plan to return to ‘kirchnerismo’. But lingering uncertainty over the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new cabinet, Chile’s economic pain Recent reports suggest that Argentina President-elect Alberto Fernández, who takes office on Tuesday, has selected Martín Guzmán as his economy minister. That’s unlikely to inspire much investor... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency falls won’t stop rate cuts The Brazilian real and the Chilean peso both fell sharply over the past week, but we still think that policymakers in both counties will cut their key interest rates in December. Despite positive... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuadorian bonds, Brazilian real, Argentina and the IMF Ecuadorian bond spreads jumped this week after the failure of a government tax proposal, but we think that the market has gone too far and that today’s rebound has further to run. Brazil’s currency... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean referendum offer, Argentina bonds, Mexico rates Chilean markets rebounded today on news that congress accepted protestors’ demand that a constituent assembly play a role in writing a new constitution next year. This suggests that the crisis may... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian reforms, Chile protests, Fernández shuns IMF Fiscal reforms proposed by Brazil’s president this week are a step in the right direction, but the good news already seems to be priced. Indeed, markets took their cue from a failed oil auction... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political uncertainty reigns in Argentina and Chile The victory for Peronist Alberto Fernández in Argentina’s presidential election on Sunday provoked a small negative shock in local financial markets. And the fact that he has done little to soothe... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reform in Brazil, protests in Chile, election in Argentina A victory for Peronist candidate Alberto Fernández in this weekend’s presidential election in Argentina looks almost certain and attention is likely to focus on any early signs that he will govern as... 25th October 2019 · 8 mins read
