Latin America Economics Weekly Currencies under fire, Mexico’s tepid recovery While Latin American currencies have come under pressure this week, we think that they will rebound over the coming quarters as global risk appetite and commodity prices generally improve. Otherwise... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s cepo, Brazil’s fiscal saga continues The tightening of capital controls (“ el cepo”) in Argentina will give the central bank some breathing room as it attempts to manage the peso over the coming months. But Argentina’s experience using... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s Federative Pact, assessing the MXN rally Brazil’s congress will reportedly receive a plan for the Federative Pact reform next week, which would ease concerns about the public finances. But we don’t think worries that the government might... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A PMI puzzle, Brazil’s GDP oddities & budget A string of eye-catching economic data releases this week has fuelled yet more optimism about the strength of Brazil’s recovery. But digging into the details suggests that there may be less to some of... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico’s mixed signals Argentina’s government formally requested talks with the IMF over a new financing deal this week, but the conditions likely to be demanded by the Fund could prove to be a major sticking point... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal drama, weak regional recovery Fears that Brazil’s economy minister, Paulo Guedes (the linchpin of the government’s reform agenda), might resign have flared up again this week, and we think that there is now a political risk... 21st August 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s reform agenda on the ropes, Covid-19 vaccine A growing dispute over the direction of policymaking in Brazil threatens to derail the reform agenda and worsen the country’s public debt problem. Meanwhile, in a rare piece of good news for the... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & Ecuador’s debt deals, Brazil’s recovery Governments in both Argentina and Ecuador managed to reach debt restricting deals with bondholders this week but, in both cases, it looks like unlikely that debt will be sustainable over the medium... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s pensions, external surpluses & Mexican oil Colombia may be about to follow Chile and Peru in allowing citizens to tap into their pension savings, which would help to shore up near-term consumer spending. But Colombia has less scope than its... 31st July 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexican pensions, Pemex report, Brazil’s tax reform Mexican President López Obrador’s pension reform will help to alleviate old-age poverty but, by placing the burden for higher contributions squarely with employers, it may lead to greater layoffs and... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Signs of (slow) regional recovery, Chile bond yields Data released this week underscore that Latin America’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will be among the weakest in the world. One consequence is that monetary conditions will have to... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina and Ecuador’s debt wrangles, bleak Brazil Recently proposed sovereign debt restructuring deals in Argentina and Ecuador, if they manage to get over the line, would help to shore up confidence and improve government finances over the coming... 10th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rising unemployment, fiscal damage, USMCA A dig into the recent labour market data shows that the hit has been even worse than the recent surge in headline unemployment rates suggests. With activity only recovering gradually, there will... 3rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal paths, Brazil’s uneven recovery, Argentine GDP Latin American governments have started to outline the direction of fiscal policy from 2021, which support our relatively upbeat view on the prospects for Chile’s recovery. While parts of Brazil’s... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean QE, Peru’s crisis, Argentina’s debt snag Chile's central bank has given clear signs that it intends to launch a QE programme involving government bond purchases and, while longer-term yields have come down a long way already, there is room... 19th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil data debacle, Chile doubles down on lockdown This week’s Covid data debacle is the latest misstep by Brazil’s government, and further policy fumbles could see the bond markets take fright, worsening the public debt dynamics. Meanwhile, Chile’s... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
