Latin America Economics Weekly Closer look at Lula, auto sector U-turn? There have been some recent clues that Brazil’s former left-wing president Lula, the current favourite to win October’s election, may not be as radical as some fear. But there is still a clear risk... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Omicron cases, BCRA hikes, Banxico minutes New virus cases have jumped almost five-fold in Latin America over the past two weeks as the contagious Omicron variant is taking hold, but there are reasons to think that the economic fallout will be... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s inflation expectations, commodity exports Brazil's central bank made it clear at its meeting this week that it will continue to hike rates aggressively until inflation expectations come down which, based on past form, will occur when actual... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks and Omicron, Colombia CA risks The emergence of the Omicron variant presents a key risk to economic recoveries in the region, although the experience from the latest virus wave in the region provides a reason to think it will not... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New face at Banxico, Chile election wrap-up The unexpected change in the nomination for Banxico’s next governor, to Victoria Rodríguez from Arturo Herrera, hit investor confidence but we don't think this switch alters the outlook for Banxico’s... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean external imbalances, Peronists humbled While much of the focus in Chile has centred on Sunday's general election, one story which may have flown under the radar is that external vulnerabilities are building. Data this week showed that the... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Core inflation concerns, elections in focus The October CPI figures out of the region this week, which showed a marked strengthening of core inflation, are likely to ring alarm bells for central banks in the region and may trigger larger rate... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile feeling the heat, Brazil bending the (fiscal) rules Strong September activity data out of Chile this week adds to signs that that the economy is starting to overheat, which will put even more pressure on the central bank to take some steam out of the... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB in a tight spot, bailout for Pemex? Brazil’s central bank is in a quandary. The market fallout after this week’s 150bp rate hike suggests investors didn’t think it went far enough to quash concerns about fiscal risks and rising... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, Brazil fiscal worries mounting This week marked the two-year anniversary of the mass protests in Chile which caused a political risk premium to emerge in local financial markets and the currency, and we think that lingering... 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The fiscal risk of rising rates, Mercosur tariff cuts Central banks were once again in the spotlight this week after the supersized 125bp rate hike in Chile, but one issue that is often overlooked is the damaging impact of rising interest rates on public... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Castillo moderates, Amlo’s intervention & ailing autos President Castillo’s cabinet reshuffle in Peru this week points towards more pragmatic policymaking which, while a possible headwind to near-term growth, should boost Peru’s medium- to long-term... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & Colombia hike but tightening cycles to differ Central banks in Mexico and Colombia raised their policy rates by 25bp yesterday and more rate hikes are in the pipeline in both economies. The pace of tightening will remain gradual in Mexico but... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Evergrande fallout on Lat Am, Peronist infighting Fears over Chinese property giant Evergrande rocked global markets earlier this week and Latin American economies, particularly Chile and Peru, are among the most exposed in the world to problems in... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s PASO surprise, Pemex debt The loss for Argentina’s ruling Peronists in the open primary (PASO) for mid-term legislative elections in November suggest that the political tides might be shifting and boosted local financial... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
