Weak survey data, inflation concerns, rate forecasts

The batch of survey data for January released this made for pretty depressing reading and reinforces our view that, despite the boost from commodities, regional growth will slow sharply this year. Despite the slowdown in activity, the latest communications from central banks in Brazil and Colombia made clear that policymakers are more worried about high inflation. These concerns prompted us to revise up our interest rate forecasts - we now think that interest rates in both countries will stay high for longer than most are expecting.