Reflecting on 2022 and looking ahead to 2023

This year has been was a surprisingly positive one for Latin America – growth has exceeded even our once above consensus expectations and has surpassed most other EM regions. But the opposite is likely to be the case next year, with the region set to slow by more than most expect. The political shift to the left was a key concern for investors in 2022; next year Argentina could buck the regional trend by electing a more market-friendly government. But even if that happens, solving Argentina's deep-seated problems will be a major undertaking and a sovereign default before the end of the decade remains more likely than not.