Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s hawks, Brazil’s Speaker, truckers’ strike The minutes to the latest Brazilian central bank decision show that the hawkish contingent on Copom is larger and more vocal than we had anticipated. But the weakness of the labour market figures... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador default risks, Brazil’s political problems Comments from left-wing Ecuadorian presidential candidate, Andrés Arauz, caused ructions in the bond market this week and reinforce our view that another debt restructuring may be on the cards... 22nd January 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s new virus variant, Chile’s FX intervention Brazil’s government will begin its vaccination programme next week but, in the near term, the severity of its COVID-19 outbreak and the discovery of a more infectious variant means lockdown measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Jabs arriving as second waves hit The escalation of new COVID-19 infections and tightening of restrictions across the region, most recently in Bogotá and Buenos Aires, poses a clear downside risk to our GDP forecasts for the first... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Vaccine plans and politics, Cuba libre-lisation Policymakers across Latin America are stepping up efforts to distribute vaccines, with Mexico and Chile set to roll out the (approved) Pzifer/BioNTech jab within just a few weeks. However, most of the... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New faces at Banxico, BanRep and Brazil’s Congress Mexican President López Obrador’s third appointment to Banxico’s Board, Galia Borja Gómez, to replace Deputy Governor Javier Guzmán, could mark a gradual shift away from the central bank’s traditional... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s recovery, two years of Amlo The recent Q3 GDP data from Brazil confirmed that its economy has suffered much less than others in Latin America, largely due to the substantial fiscal support offered by the government. One... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s current account surplus, Brazil payrolls The eye-catching swing in Mexico’s current account, from a small deficit in Q2 to a huge surplus in Q3, was driven by a much stronger rebound in goods exports than imports last quarter. While the... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andean pension withdrawals, Pemex financing Amidst the recent political turmoil in Peru, a second pension withdrawal bill was passed through Congress and a similar plan is in the pipeline in Chile. While they would boost private consumption in... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Vaccines, impeachment & elections News of a potential vaccine breakthrough provides an upside risk to our GDP growth forecasts, but the crisis will still leave a legacy of higher debt and unemployment in Latin America. The impeachment... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Post-US election fallout, BCB rate hikes still a way off The most likely outcome from the US election – a Biden win alongside a divided Senate – is arguably the best possible result for Latin America. Mexico will probably face a less antagonistic trading... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil inflation fears, Pemex profits, Chile’s vote Concerns about rising inflation in Brazil are growing, we don’t think these fears are a bit overblown; underlying prices pressures remain soft. This is likely to remain the case, suggesting the... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s referendum, BCB’s autonomy Chile’s electorate is likely to vote in favour of having a new constitution on Sunday, which may start a long process towards entrenching greater state intervention in the economy. That would help to... 23rd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly ARS adjustment inevitable, Bolivia’s election Pressure is mounting on Argentina’s central bank as it attempts to manage the peso with rapidly diminishing FX reserves. While policymakers have poured cold water on growing speculation of a currency... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly IMF visits, fiscal space & protests It looks like the Mexican government will ignore the IMF’s advice this week that it should ramp up spending, adding to reasons to expect a weak recovery there. Brazil’s government, in contrast... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA changes tack, Brazil’s Renda Cidadã mess The announcement by Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) of a new monetary policy strategy, in which it will allow a ‘managed float’ of the peso, reduces the risk of the real exchange rate becoming... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
