Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil pensions delay, Argentina CA, Banxico dissenter It’s been a noisy week in Brazilian politics but, while the chances of some kind of pension reform being approved this year have risen, we think the fiscal savings will be smaller than many are... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia rate cut would be a misstep, Argentina wrap Market expectations for interest rate cuts in Colombia are growing, but the country’s large current account deficit means that we think any easing would probably prove to be a policy mistake... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate cuts coming in Brazil, Argentine political jostling The weakness of the Brazilian economy and rapidly falling inflation mean we now expect an interest rate cut, and we think there is a window of opportunity for Copom to act at next week’s meeting... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s investment slump, rate cuts One factor that has been missed amid the growing debate about the weakness of Brazil’s economy is the continued slump in investment and, more worryingly, the fact that there is little prospect for a... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fernández-Fernández, Brazil reform, GDP drop Investors have largely welcomed the decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president (rather than the top job) in Argentina’s election in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Dire Brazil data, tensions brewing in Argentina Data released this week all-but-confirm that Brazilian GDP contracted in Q1 and it looks touch and go as to whether the economy entered a technical recession in Q2. Another fall in output this quarter... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico CPI boosted by Easter, dovish Andean CBs Data released this week confirming a further rise in Mexican inflation last month were eye-catching, but it looks like Easter effects were partly to blame. Elsewhere, dovish statements accompanying... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina policy U-turn continues, Maduro clings on The decision by Argentina’s central bank to scrap the peso’s trading band and signal more FX intervention has shored up the currency this week but, sooner rather than later, markets are likely to test... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina: pricing political risk, CA now in balance? Argentine markets have stabilised today but, by our estimates, the aggressive sell-off earlier this week has resulted in the political risk premium on dollar bonds widening to around 200bp. We think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s unorthodoxy, Argentina’s inflation panic Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro this week has shown further signs that he is less committed to market orthodoxy than many had hoped. For now, it seems that parts of the administration are working... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s first 100 days, rising regional inflation Jair Bolsonaro’s government has put forward an impressive set of plans to reform Brazil’s economy, but souring relations with congress reinforce our view that these will be diluted. Perhaps of more... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico back in Trump’s firing line President Trump’s renewed threats to a) place a 25% tariff on vehicle imports from Mexico and b) close the southern border would, if acted on, deal a substantial hit to Mexican GDP. But we think they... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro boost over, MXN shrugs off USMCA risks Expectations for reforms from the Bolsonaro government came crashing back to earth this week and there is now a risk premium on the Brazilian real and dollar bonds that could increase further unless... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly A pension setback in Brazil, Argentina’s recession Swings in Brazil’s equity and currency markets this week suggest that investors are coming to terms with the idea that pension reform will be diluted. But there are much greater concerns about... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA measures no silver bullet, team Amlo discord Measures announced by Argentina’s central bank last night appear to have supported the peso today, but the currency will remain vulnerable to large falls, particularly as October’s presidential... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
