Commodities Update Soybean prices likely to fall back by year end We expect the price of US soybeans to decline gradually over the summer as exports from South America pick up. They may then fall more rapidly by the end of the year as a large supply of crops from... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity imports were stronger than overall trade in June, but were still weak in the first half of 2013 overall. What’s more, China is shifting to a lower and less commodity-intensive growth... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Ample supply to weigh again on oil prices Oil prices have been lifted again by hopes of stronger demand and fears of disruption in the Middle East, but we do not expect these supports to be sustained. Ample supply against a backdrop of still... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown: which EMs are most exposed? Last week we published for the first time our forecasts for 2015 GDP growth in China, which put us right at the bottom end of consensus expectations. For the rest of the emerging world, the effects of... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity imports were stronger than overall trade in June, but were still weak in the first half of 2013 overall. What’s more, China is shifting to a lower and less commodity-intensive growth... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s commodity boom – an opportunity missed When all’s said and done, the commodity price boom of the past decade will probably go down as a wasted opportunity for the economies of Latin America. Rather than saving and investing their windfall... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Favourable weather to dampen US grain prices further The falls in US grain prices over the last month were largely due to better weather which allowed farmers to finish planting. The extremely wet spring had supported prices due to fears that late... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's behind the narrowing in the Brent-WTI spread? The collapse in the differential between the prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) primarily reflects the prospect of a further easing of the logistical constraints that have been... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is $100 oil here to stay? The relative resilience of oil prices in the face of worries about US monetary policy and the health of China’s economy suggest that $100 will act as a floor for the price of a barrel of Brent for a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Negative sentiment towards gold looks overdone Commodity prices mostly fell further in June, with gold being hit particularly hard by (premature) fears of an early end to the support from global monetary policy. Industrial commodities were also... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A more cautious view on gold The slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce on Friday forced us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal. Nonetheless, our revised forecasts assume a bit... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for gold? The recent slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce – which regrettably we failed to predict – has prompted us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A new front in the war on coal? US President Obama’s speech on climate change policy yesterday contained little new. Nonetheless, it highlights the downward pressures on coal prices already coming from environmental policy... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China slowdown and policy outlooks to keep prices weak Poor Chinese manufacturing data and the prospect that US monetary policy may soon be less supportive have more than offset signs that the recession in the euro-zone is easing. Of these developments... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice price to continue to fall as Thailand reduces support We expect the reduction in the floor price the Thai government will pay rice farmers to increase private exports and sales from government stocks, putting further downward pressure on prices. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
