Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fragile EM export recovery facing more headwinds EM export growth picked up in September, continuing the sluggish recovery seen since the start of this year. However, the improvement remains concentrated in a handful of EMs, with commodity producers... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How might the US midterm results affect US energy policy? The shift in the US political spectrum towards the Republicans could result in the restrictions on US oil exports being eased sooner than otherwise. However, the Republicans are likely to put most of... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower production estimates won’t stop grain prices falling Global corn, wheat and soybeans remain on course for record harvests this year. Combined with high stocks, lower energy costs and a stronger US dollar, we continue to expect crop prices to fall... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How should bond markets respond to lower oil prices? While the slump in oil prices will reduce inflation in the major economies, it should also boost economic growth – at least where inflation is not dangerously low to begin with. The net effect on... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some brighter signs in China’s trade data There were signs of a pick-up in copper imports in China’s October trade data, while iron ore and crude oil imports were still up strongly in year-on-year terms. However, exports of some refined raw... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update New subsidy to slow cotton market adjustment in China A new subsidy programme for Chinese cotton producers outside of Xinjiang province is unlikely to have a major impact on the market and we still expect the global price of cotton to fall. Nevertheless... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Falling commodity prices to keep inflation subdued The recent sharp falls in local food and global oil prices are likely to have kept both consumer and wholesale price inflation subdued in October. This would strengthen our view that the RBI is likely... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What are China’s copper demand indicators saying? Concerns about demand, notably from China, have been one of the key factors cited by commentators to justify recent copper price falls. However, not all indicators of demand are flashing red. As such... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation last month will come as a welcome relief to policymakers but is unlikely to prevent interest rates from rising further over the coming months... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering an era of softer growth as oil boom fades The sharp slide in oil prices since the summer won’t cause a major headache for the Gulf States, but it does reinforce the point that these economies are set to lose some steam over the coming years... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Demand for US corn to remain weak despite falling prices Although the price of US corn has fallen to levels last seen in early 2010, lower livestock numbers, limits on ethanol demand and lower international corn trade will prevent a large pick-up in demand. 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risk of spikes in US natural gas prices still high The recent unseasonably warm weather has given US natural gas companies additional time to boost stocks before heating demand picks up. However, the amount of gas in storage is still significantly... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will the slump in oil prices affect the world economy? The collapse in oil prices over the past few months will not transform the outlook for the world economy, but it should act as an “automatic stabiliser”, providing some reassurance to those fearing... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) September’s Brazilian industrial production data suggest that the sector remained a drag on the overall economy in the third quarter and, with both domestic and external demand set to remain weak, it... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Gold referendum highlights limits of SNB policy Fears that a referendum over the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) gold holdings might prevent the Bank defending its ceiling for the Swiss franc may be overblown. But the referendum highlights political... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
