Commodities Update What does Chavez's passing mean for oil prices? The death of the Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, is unlikely to have a significant impact on global oil markets in the short term, although this impact could yet be in either direction. Over the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cobalt: the Capital Economics view Cobalt is being added to our coverage of industrial metals from today. The price of cobalt is barely a quarter of the highs seen in March 2008, which might suggest that there is plenty of upside if... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasuries regain their poise The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back in February, reversing about half of its rise in January. The drop was partly prompted by safe-haven demand following the inconclusive result of the Italian... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico edges towards energy reform Confirmation that Mexico’s governing PRI party will support reforms to open up the state-owned oil company Pemex has cleared a major obstacle to private sector investment in the energy industry... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia, Gazprom and the shale revolution The development of shale gas in Europe is unlikely to have a significant impact on Russia’s energy exports over the next couple of years. But in time, it could prove to be the final nail in the coffin... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack New Year rally comes to an abrupt end Commodity prices fell back in February due to worries about the global economy, renewed tensions in the euro-zone and fears of an early halt to QE in the US. These factors were reflected in a stronger... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to call time on the bull market in gold Despite the recent weakness, we continue to expect the price of gold to reach new record highs of $2,000 per ounce later this year as global monetary policy remains supportive, the crisis in Europe... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs provide reality check on strength of global recovery The decline in the flash manufacturing PMI for China in February, reported today, is the latest sign that the pick-up in global manufacturing may be faltering. The equivalent US and euro-zone data... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper supply (finally) surges Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Equity market rally loses steam Following a strong start to the year, the rally in sub-Saharan African equity markets has lost a little steam in the past few weeks. Nevertheless, the MSCI frontier Africa index is still up by around... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks medium-term deficiencies A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next two years. But an overreliance on the hydrocarbons sector, coupled with perennial concerns over... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can Brent spreads be justified by fundamentals? The spreads between the prices of Brent and other crude benchmarks such as WTI and Dubai have recently widened to levels which are hard to justify on the basis of underlying supply and demand. This... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to call the bottom of the sugar market Even though the global price has already slumped by around a third over the last two years, sugar has been the worst performing of the major agricultural commodities so far in 2013, falling by another... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the recovery in cotton prices be sustained? The price of cotton, which fell by around 20% in 2012, has turned around to become the best performing of the major agricultural commodities so far this year, rising by about 10%. This recovery has... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is it time to give up on commodities? It has taken two years of dismal returns and a regulatory backlash, but the consensus has finally swung round to our long-held scepticism about the “super-cycle” and the diversification benefits of... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports flattered by timing of New Year The value of China’s commodity imports rose y/y in January at their fastest rate since October but this may well have been due to the distortions caused by the timing of the lunar New Year as much as... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
